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[lastpost] => 2812891 今日虚拟币市场是涨多跌少啊 1773074873 垂钓园
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
4 K3 V& l6 K& O% ?: t$ ^2 g, e
" \7 h3 X- I( q而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
: x3 Y) P) r/ d' X2 u4 V4 J$ M2 l/ y+ D
的千禧一代。
0 p: `1 x- w) i/ w4 u从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
- Q. ]7 E) N# ?/ c8 F
1 I5 C/ g! k8 q# H: ~, e* `的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
9 E/ l/ s2 A: A% k6 X6 q h4 m9 p1 S$ j2 Y; J$ i+ ~+ W
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加! {& @3 a3 M9 e0 C1 G
3 }; }% y2 r+ d' L密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
6 J% h/ X( ^8 ]$ T# T9 ?, ?5 t; V! N' ?. ~
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成+ Y- K3 `+ @% H0 J1 y1 y% D# ~# ?2 p
( v) [) r* K$ r" r4 _9 H2 F- q的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
7 x6 ` S% N2 V6 Z: Y9 }% ` c
4 q- ~. W% m5 S7 S5 \# T报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
3 u( v( V0 E, Z8 w+ S! a9 c- r) C' O# U3 a+ R3 b
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为: W3 S9 T' y0 f1 }3 x; {7 R Q- o$ p Z
2 ^* z& ]4 A( \1 p* K# u
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
0 c6 y- y: i- l' a5 S
* U! j ]( T9 l( E据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降8 |& ]3 X5 Z* U
$ L% U" G4 M0 G1 o0 W息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。' k% z0 F7 H) \4 ]5 u) ~* c9 E
& V7 x1 a( ?* j d
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密# M" f7 N9 p$ T
6 u8 M4 ^; u$ I2 ]6 v世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富0 ]/ v, N1 c4 J' t" H
& A d" c( W! {$ ?/ ]+ [0 x
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不3 Z4 W! J) q+ X' e
$ y; v7 O. k8 f% D. O t
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一1 W- Q, _8 a, {# I( k- z8 a
5 N$ G$ r0 d# ^3 C. q+ p9 [$ g
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成3 F2 P4 Y- }2 r- S5 T9 |
! K* B5 M K/ J9 z本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
$ K0 q& Z6 I1 r5 y6 I* u
( j9 t% [8 e+ I7 M0 p3 Y系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
" I8 \; [3 \* a3 B" J0 B! W8 s. O" Q" q b
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
' h3 K6 e% L/ P# Y
+ y& u `# Y p9 `+ T未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
6 v; t7 f9 b: l; A5 l1 m- ]* n
6 g& I+ ?3 M: Z9 a9 u7 p3 J/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
( s7 h; T+ ~+ W8 [! G) D
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