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[虚拟币交流]
比特币流动性转向美国 现货ETF重塑加密货币市场(转)
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归功于美国新推出的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),与海外平台相比,美国加密货币交易所的比特币交易显得更为容易。# ~* V B- G- w
7 M2 }$ h! C' C2 F* ?0 S 研究公司Kaiko的数据显示,今年到目前为止,美国交易场所的交易行为平均占比特币中间价2%以内买卖行为的近一半,
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该数据统计区间跨越了美国比特币现货ETF的推出事件。出价和要价在中间价2%以内的交易行为,可以在不过度扰乱价格的情
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' _4 T3 v9 V. j# ]2 Z, T况下执行订单,该指标数量越多,表明流动性越好。根据这一指标,2023年,非美国平台在比特币市场深度上占据了绝大部分份额。
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今年1月11日,九个美国比特币ETF首次亮相,而拥有十多年历史的Grayscale比特币信托基金也在同一天转换为比特币ETF。迄今
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为止,包括贝莱德和富达投资在内的这组产品已经吸引了50亿美元的投资净流入。对这些产品的期待和推出,刺激了比特币价格在过
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, u) Q1 T5 J: a. K4 @7 Q去12个月里翻了一番。2 m; o& R0 x- i. T' V
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流动性增加
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现货ETF发行商之一VanEck的数字资产研究主管马修·西格尔(Matthew Sigel)说:“比特币的积极价格走势在美国交易时段最为
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明显,因为市场参与者利用了流动性增加的优势。”2 {5 y. {# Q7 r& @7 e
2 X8 B. {( n3 u2 |2 ]5 }1 C 一些观察家将比特币现货ETF视为一个拐点,称ETF将扩大加密货币的采用。乐观人士预计,数字资产交易量将从FTX交易所及其# b E! O. N% Y# b" L
- V& L y8 a$ L9 u姊妹对冲基金阿拉米达研究公司(Alameda Research)在2022年熊市中倒闭后的低迷水平恢复过来。
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ETF的影响已经显现。例如,根据Kaiko高级分析师Dessislava Aubert的数据,目前57%的比特币兑美元交易在美国市场时段进行,' g O. p: }# W9 R1 M. H
4 c4 l% o' B: z7 a5 G而一年前这一比例仅为48%。
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3 O7 _7 |- @& {. _3 |4 H 未平仓合约4 }; X; Z% R8 j' O
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值得注意的是,在衍生品领域,芝加哥商品交易所比特币期货市场的未平仓合约正向ETF获批时创下的历史最高水平回升。未平% M/ {' D* G3 n% ]0 X
- c* L8 g+ I( `1 `0 V4 y仓合约的增加表明,美国机构对加密货币相关的风险敞口和对冲更感兴趣。
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在每日美国市场收盘时,比特币ETF将根据专用基准计算其资产净值,这一过程有助于发现比特币价格。
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加密货币主经纪商FalconX的研究主管戴维·劳恩特(David Lawant)说,这种“透明、可靠的参考点”使投资者能够“在指定时间集, [9 n' [" Y% `# w/ M& ~+ L
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中进行大额交易”,因此可能减少了对市场的影响。
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/ o# B6 E8 P" h0 {4 I6 J5 Y Lawant说,投资者需要密切关注ETF的流入情况,因为“当买入流消退时,价格更可能回落”。9 S% |2 \: O7 y# k2 T
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