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[lastpost] => 2793443 比特币失去对白银的波动溢价，但并未失去长期支撑——接下来会发生什么？（转） 1767120437 人生如赌
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.8行情虽熊 但低点支撑强硬 不予低位追空 相反埋伏短多长多 6月整体看修复
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策小分:
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近几日行情受消息影响、振幅较大。 A2 q( i" I$ ^: B; x6 Z8 f8 H
但综合，下不破29000、上不过32000. * n6 ?, Z3 |6 |* y$ ^/ E4 a
依旧处于底部箱体阶段！
" |( ?0 b- q1 k l) d其中也看出上涨、不具备连续性！
2 F, F6 Z4 h) R5 P( e6 ~, f& r极易走出老韭菜口中的画门行情、 8 m& B$ x- P7 u" @4 D* z1 P* z
所以操作上、尽可能避免追涨杀跌！
1 X4 \7 V& G$ R9 L( o但可在空间内、逢日线高低峰值附近进行短线布局。 ' K8 [' z, S, @( Z
技术面补充、 ' e" Q. Q: h( z
在5.12创出低于5.19的26700低点后、 . n' L! S7 Z" @- Q* Z K+ K
一月以来行情基本未再失守28000点， $ U- h" {: m1 s r
而以太多次坚挺于2700上方、 # h2 P2 ?" Q/ x$ v
充分说明这两个支撑具有极强参考性！ ; z4 s+ q) N9 Z4 s
也说明，该区域不具备更大抛压。 * s L( ?2 n8 K/ N1 u1 R% R" z, @( L
所以从趋势看，在6-8月间，未出现大于50基点，市场低点基本止于此。 & H4 s8 b4 D% r# t6 r9 ?
那长线来看、这两个点位，正是布局长线时机。
3 z2 x" z! N3 G1 V短线也可以此为据、
, Q" l! [- h, O（这也是近半月未做短空、）
% d; c. H+ @* i# i% t消息上、 * w! `* U& H; ]- T, g7 R2 @
除bnb调查事件、
$ A( [/ H6 U9 i" a4 {6 w$ T近期强调最多、是多部门建议加速规范加密JG。
5 H* i3 z& G8 S; f紧密形成国际合作。
: ^- m* e7 U/ R. ]. g整体偏正面，有助于大饼登堂入室、 3 K/ G1 I' y& U' D, |) c
综上、整体来看、 C9 }3 a$ S+ L* U& w4 c ~! s
市场上半年经历过多利空，行情一直低迷。 # A5 Q' {/ |6 l, ~
但看好下半年，最大问题“膨胀”得到控制。
( }, }: p+ J; \且美股回温补涨、（一般加息过后、美股反涨7%-15%） ( y! C- Q9 z8 a. v: u( C
那在9-10月开始降息。后续再停止缩表。 9 L6 b! e e; ~# R7 i( G- O
市场必然迎来一轮较强涨幅。 4 t# K8 K: m5 l6 d" W
而六月、个人是不看好有更大利空出现。 - a8 i4 g% p d
七月、即使同步加息50基点。 ; F! S, ^$ m' j5 m3 m
个人认为、市场可承受！ $ A R( n. ]3 A' a4 S$ B- L! ~9 |
同幅度利空，市场再次经历，幅度必大打折扣。
4 X9 q# i2 u' U% X) `+ v近期重点关注周五、5月末季调cpi利率。 T9 d; V" k7 g+ y
日内价格处于平均振幅偏中轨、（多空不宜） " O; |' d6 B. p& D7 S
大饼建议回踩4小时低点
% S) ^3 x% z7 v0 h0 P29900激进接多
, [! O, A w; z' E3 C29650补仓 2 L. q2 z7 m$ I, ?0 e. }4 l
防守29300 / F7 n0 P: ^& O. S, F
目标看行情修复至30800-31500-32000 1 O/ ]( \9 |) E+ N" ]9 g2 l
以太回踩1768激进接多
" h. I; n* g8 N6 \. |1745补仓 & i+ Z: K2 n7 p3 |+ R" U6 B
防守1720 9 @* d4 {9 b9 R/ q5 A- X/ a) B
目标看行情修复至1850-1870-1900 " v5 ^( z( b5 H% U* |- X
观点不变，熊市强硬支撑区不做追空。 9 r/ Q! i3 z, o5 w& J
短中线，依旧以低多为主。突破则留。反之做短。 / C5 H! ]) T, q, M
看好7月加息前，市场出现阶段修复。
4 S: F' v2 m1 O3 P- z0 o在7月逼近出现小幅度回撤，直至8-10月、开始较大单边涨幅。
3 i; R ?* B% a6 H* M切记注意长线进场时机。
9 D" f+ ?. o6 \3 Y8 ~1 l8 o来源：金色财经 |
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