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[lastpost] => 2654302 别对AI未来过于自信!诺奖得主:两年前的“加密货币泡沫”或重演-转载 1717409911 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
美国滞胀风险吓退加密市场 比特币以太坊双双退至悬崖边缘(转)
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加密市场目前似乎正处于悬崖边,正在争论该走哪个方向,这也意味着更多的看涨和看跌言论将涌入市场。
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而由于人们再次开始担心美国滞胀,加密货币先表现出下跌的趋势。
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; ^( P3 u9 ~4 Z0 z1 W# u ^根据CoinDesk数据,截至发稿时,比特币交易价格接近 62400 美元,24小时内下跌2.4%,较3月的历史高点则已; u/ ^' s2 Q% t+ d% X* }
. T+ g: w6 I, {) j6 `0 C, f4 ~0 w累计跌去15%。以太坊下跌4%,至3200 美元以下,衡量流动性的指数CoinDesk 20下跌 2.6%,至 2170点。% s1 Q$ Y4 { @) o' N( C7 }% K
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上周的美国GDP报告显示,继上一季度增长3.4%之后,其今年第一季度的年化增长率降至1.6%。与此同时,美" R5 x& i& A! K3 p3 r n) A
$ A' P9 U& \& d( n% ~2 b$ r联储关键通胀指标PCE指数显示,今年前三个月的物价年化率从2023年最后一个季度的1.8%升至3.4%。* D$ W0 a1 `$ u. W$ k
! P, a: v3 Y0 D) K, \, S7 lGDP增速放缓加上通胀粘性增加让市场再次看到滞胀出现的可能性,并进一步削弱了美联储降息的可能性。预测
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! Q. ]# s! _# q y! n1 U* n平台Polymarket上关于美联储货币政策的押注中,大多数交易者现在认为今年不降息的可能性为35%,较一周前" @2 Q9 b+ m& H4 F/ _% ^3 C
# t6 [. T( Z8 _; \% G. F1 l的26%明显上升。
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CoinDesk分析师Omkar Godbole表示,比特币牛市持续的关键是美国财政部即将发布的季度再融资公告,其将说明
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$ ^8 s* k3 {) ]; m$ g' q" G2 J! i一季度美国ZF的借款需求以及财政部普通账户中持有的余额,或将预示着美国接下来的财政政策方向。/ p* b0 R4 p2 k1 r! j
" ~, l* i9 q4 d: r9 b: q还在乐观的一些人
2 h3 `: C) A% ?, g8 N这一前景导致加密货币市场情绪明显变得低迷很多。上周六,加密分析师Peter Brandt分析称,比特币的牛市- R% E/ p% |8 c
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周期已经呈现出指数级衰减的模式,80%推动牛市的能量已经消失。9 t1 r, f& ]$ _
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他估计比特币当前周期的顶部约为70000美元,而3月时这一价格已经被触及。但他也怀疑比特币仍有可能还未看
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到价格触顶。) m' x6 d$ U$ l
! i$ r3 ]' h7 Y( c! C! S与此同时,一些分析师还指出本轮比特币上涨之中存在一些更加积极的因素。其中一个关键点在于本轮周期中,
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不同于以往散户为主的推动,机构显然通过比特币ETF贡献了极大的力量。: f8 m, M+ [" u. H2 N1 ?/ N
2 ], w: x5 n2 Q) j+ l; p+ U) ^$ B此外,还有人则指出,比特币的减半事件导致目前该资产的通胀率已经降至1%以下,全球每天只能开采450个比! D# q7 f& e7 B! s
4 e* ^% s5 F5 ]2 e5 @; e- n$ B特币,这意味着比特币比终极对冲工具——黄金更加稀有。这也让一些投资人坚信比特币比黄金拥有更强的避险
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属性。0 |. s- ^# \6 q# c5 P5 A
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