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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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3 A/ F# c# K& G" Z1 C其实原文标题不是这样的; R( L( B6 m, e6 Z+ {/ ^4 u' B7 Q
3 }( C/ l2 e. ?3 o0 V这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝.../ S8 n* I2 {4 f: W
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
+ L" L* h; D. e: `. q4 w
$ G& V+ G6 p" P3 ` 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。& c7 @- F1 Y6 H# _* C) \
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」! D' y$ @# I. l" U! ^
. x' X; G5 p( X/ a; f「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 & W$ t6 A* c% `5 n# W
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
+ E( K3 A, M4 ~* N% [
" m1 r$ B9 a0 y% j9 g* n 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，8 H" J; W9 d. C: x. u* T& d9 G
因此铜板较容易出现正面。2 [4 b' C3 T! k) K2 |: I. F. ?
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 / l3 k/ m2 p5 h9 u# S& D! `
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。- V% j& @" r$ o& q# z' \
心想赢定了。6 l* C' s3 D- k; [" \, V) X5 o
) ^4 K- T* q+ x6 g3 [3 K没想到开始不到半刻钟，. k2 E3 V5 b) G' {# ^
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」. ^* |- f( Z6 }5 U2 L* z& \# S
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
/ N, {' c5 G9 t5 m7 z3 c# V但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。7 Z7 L! A; r$ ?# ]
; t. J; U L: v8 f6 q+ u9 }' W E% L赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?1 e; S1 V8 q! y8 U0 V$ q3 \
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
9 |& P# M; d. S「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
: h6 q- K. ^) G4 i+ B3 j( S「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
2 w! k% X& U- S2 _; G「而不是先发生在我身上。」$ G: x5 z& p. I
" Y. x6 B/ Y2 a# f. L4 V
赌徒恍然大悟，
% u/ k8 S+ Z9 c- m( P原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，: Y% B b! p: q' _
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！6 b* U! k! ]8 }% J, v [2 ~0 Z0 t
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」8 [. _+ S. M" p. D6 V0 f
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，5 a3 Y* L8 k" D* H0 G8 u
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，7 j( H# p2 J# S b8 d8 u" z% m
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，) _! @% p' E: ?. q9 R
对赌徒十分有利。* K4 P$ w( m; o7 c9 O( s/ |6 q
6 x. g. H! }. l/ u3 Y* n4 B0 r# \* g( K
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，3 ^& M0 O S8 ]0 p" [
在还没掷到1000次之前，
) W" z, k- B7 u, Z- M, S3 }4 J- k仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。( n( u' x$ V0 ?3 {5 `- I
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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3 b4 N v* C4 n; _! m3 D 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。9 q- i& H4 c# o: t/ M6 m; u3 u
8 B5 F, w. T) s" ?9 `( j& n1 t 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，; _# v$ ]4 K! V4 H$ c) D8 [
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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