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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格在10.5万美元下方停滞，链上数据显示价格处于盘整阶段（转）
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比特币在2026年初的交易价格接近94,000美元，多项链上指标和市场结构指标均显示，比特币正处于盘整阶段而非单边扩张阶段。Checkonchain分享的数据显示，尽管当前价格仍维持在区间震荡，但暗流涌动，供应量已发生大规模重新分配。/ k+ ~( q" J5 f4 F/ S w
2 g* \ }. N6 K! {4 k& {; v! Y根据 Checkonchain 的数据，比特币的供应集中度已从 67% 降至 47%，这表明以前集中在大实体手中的持有量已经变得更加均匀分布。' W6 V! z7 ]" K5 y2 G5 Z! J; R w
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与此同时，已实现获利回吐活动有所减少，表明此前在较低价位建仓的持有者抛售压力有所降低。期货市场也出现了空头挤压，而各衍生品交易场所的总体杠杆率仍保持在相对较低的水平，从而限制了系统性清算风险。- H# J6 Y' \+ v3 Q9 S
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技术结构界定了近期边界% n+ e5 b0 V* l) F* k4 ]
分析中引用的图表数据显示比特币跌破 98,000 美元至 105,000 美元之间的既定阻力带。该区域与短期持有成本基础和 200 日移动平均线相吻合，这两者在历史上都曾作为趋势转变的拐点。
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下行方面，主要支撑区域已在 80,000 美元至 82,000 美元之间形成，该区域的市场趋势与 ETF 相关需求相吻合。该区域吸收了近期的回调，表明机构投资者在疲软时期持续参与。更深远的下行参考点位于 56,000 美元附近，该位置与已实现价格和 200 周移动平均线相吻合，历史上这些水平通常与周期性市场低点相关。) y, j8 ]$ U- @" X! Q6 C
: A# y4 Q1 Q* c& J& \鲸鱼式囤货与零售行为( L8 a3 _) v' K9 M, g
来自 Santiment 的独立数据演出数据显示，自12月17日起，持有10至10,000枚比特币的钱包累计持有56,227枚比特币，这一时期恰逢比特币近期触底反弹。Santiment报告称，过去24小时内，持有低于0.01枚比特币的钱包已开始获利了结。从历史数据来看，这种现象通常与市场企稳期或短期上涨行情的延续相吻合。5 b) d0 V: ~8 @
& P5 T; s g1 u: w9 ^( B此外，还有来自 Ted Pillows 的市场评论参考比特币试图重夺2025年开盘价。图表显示，价格在93,000美元至94,000美元附近盘整，更高的阻力位在102,000美元附近，如果当前支撑位失守，下行风险可能延伸至90,000美元至91,000美元。
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比特币价格在10.5万美元下方盘整，看来还得等等看 |
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这波盘整挺有意思，筹码分散了反而更稳，不像以前一砸就崩 |
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这波盘整看着像蓄力，供应分散了倒是好事，杠杆不高就还有戏 |
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