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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第3部分 大小球研究-第1章 大小球指数分析--[第三节2(1)]
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1#
二、波胆赔率分析法下的投注策略1 O- \  q% ^3 M; @1 A. v
     在掌握了利用波胆赔率分析进球数的方法后,可以将这些方法应用于实战中的投注策略。这种以波胆分析为前提的投注策略可以归纳为:进球最小化排除法和即时比分排除法。5 m/ F# W: C" j& k5 q. t. O. R6 V5 d2 {
     (一)进球最小化排除法8 Q+ O0 V0 p7 h  V, S& w
     该方法要点是,通过波胆分析方法,对小球范围内的1-0、0-0、0-1这三种小球比分
2 U6 R5 }; x& s; f# s4 E2 d     进行排除。得出分析结论后,可以在比赛进行时(走地)双方都无进球状情况下投注大球。如半场0-0时买入全场1.5球或1.75球。举例说明如下:; Q1 w$ ?9 C2 n& k
     
, e2 F$ h: ?4 o$ q$ E. G6 s# T     卡利亚里 2-0 桑普多利亚
+ t; b+ L1 X9 U- A/ `$ R     比赛时间: 2009年11月08日- K4 M% w( ~) ?+ `' Z
     澳盘初盘: 1.08平手/半球0.78
& m% E. Q  l) `1 R' T0 O2 v     澳盘终盘: 1.07平手/半球0.79
) d" s" R% \: N     2 Z6 @7 f, ^- K8 Z, W- m
     主队胜波胆赔率 客队胜波胆赔率 平局胜波胆赔率 返还率
" I6 k) I8 N$ `9 @     赛果 $ X5 ^( i2 m3 b& {+ T
     1:0 2:0 2:1 3:0 3:1 3:2 4:0 4:1 4:2 4:3 0:1 0:2 1:2 0:3 1:3 2:3 0:4 1:4 2:4 3:4 0:0 1:1 2:2 3:3 4:4
8 ^: B% q. e1 ?     韦德 * K6 K+ \1 I7 l  c' F  u+ P
     7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%
  C1 {  c" X9 x- Z( _+ [6 m     7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%  k. t$ L3 a! L1 _. n0 b- [9 F, N6 `
     威廉希尔
8 y6 m  {3 U1 G7 N$ t  D     7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 12 10 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 7.5 6 13 51 101 70.87%) s( c- Q+ E6 e0 W; K, Q4 f6 }
     7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 13 11 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 8.5 6 13 51 101 72.47%
2 ^* z' K; E) u1 R  I* a1 ~- d     澳门 3 I" Y. H/ v. P+ e5 U5 Q
     7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%  {0 ]6 P+ a8 B/ H0 T* s
     7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%: f" e+ Q& A9 L8 A/ h  @6 T
     立博   i' A( u! D- E4 Q; k
     6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%; M: s" i6 K, e: O  J; j% [. C8 c, P
     6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%
" Z: [( w+ Q- V) p; @     双方的历史交锋记录中,主队1-0小胜的次数较多,而韦德在1-0的比分上给出的7.5倍赔率,此赔率对于这种打出机会很大的比分而言明显太过于便宜。而在0-0比分上,立博的6倍和韦德的9倍存在很大差异,因此也可以排除。在0-1的比分上,各家公司都一致在这个项目上出现赔率数值的交叉,而该比分并不符合双方实际状况,因此存在被炒作嫌疑,也可做排除考虑。在排除了三种只有1个进球以内的可能性后,那么本场比赛的进球格局就基本清晰了。在实际操作中,如赛前大小球盘口为2.5球,鉴于意甲联赛进球时间都较为迟缓,则可考虑在比赛开始后的走地阶段等到1.5-1.5/2球时入市。这种在排除进球最小化可能的前提下,适时出击大球的方法,不失为一种低风险高回报的投注策略。
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提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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3#
太复杂了,数字看的头晕的很。
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4#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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6#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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太复杂,表示看不懂
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