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[lastpost] => 2812891 今日虚拟币市场是涨多跌少啊 1773074873 垂钓园
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
& v6 Q8 k) F/ Y0 C
, p: i9 V% a; N! g; p9 V的千禧一代。
2 i* p! \& H2 p( p0 U! O: k U, T从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB0 A: G o8 H8 s
& X, R$ k. S' I' p* M
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
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时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据' ~( G9 k1 A! O: i% o( r0 h
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《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成/ \; \. m! x8 P3 W5 `
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
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报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
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10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为% X+ f) C- K9 H5 G3 W
5 ^6 s; L' ?2 T! l: ]+ j; X7 oETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。7 f" W b( O( K0 u* U
% U* a4 l! f& | b6 {/ g8 Y/ Y9 J据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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) W3 v$ F1 c: b( e! F; ~4 Y' d息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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1 w4 Z. G% y [与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密7 |% w- \- j( |2 @# \& v' j+ q! {7 S
$ ?5 D8 r+ P* ]4 [8 d世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
% c% w' n0 w5 V( r
' A6 h' d+ S D传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
7 K Z. L* ?: ]! E8 H @
/ o5 z, g+ d R& x: a! \+ _到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
' `5 o# |: X& d9 n, i3 C& E& M* Q2 J1 j8 `) n1 ?) X
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体/ ?( N; Z! B3 X6 k7 P
) L9 ]: D# k8 @4 v' J" `6 Z
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
* ^# U5 X' X# C# x P: x% \" [
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致( l E8 Y5 e6 Q; o0 d7 R! O
# a {' ? \8 C% V6 z1 C
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
+ F4 J; P# o6 j$ q {5 h* x0 v3 M( w( O2 E6 |
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。) L8 G2 w, u3 K, Z1 b# B
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