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[lastpost] => 2655056 比特币现货ETF吸引8.87亿美元 创历史第二高单日流入量(转载) 1717939625 yubuluowang
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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
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, F% v8 @- a; z, N许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
9 r6 L4 S3 }6 t( g2 M, F
* _, i" O+ J+ p$ M3 z" S$ K Z格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速# _( @; B+ T9 ^& m" x' [0 j2 N7 ?
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猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?. r$ B7 c8 a. _5 q* \
+ T9 {* H: y2 r; s: N1 n
对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。+ m& j: k# H" M6 w; l
6 f3 Y* c3 Y8 y
这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
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' q/ K! I% c: W8 ]3 k$ V比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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0 N9 N* D: P" F+ Z; Y狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
9 G1 H4 g/ ]7 C& }
9 p+ f9 |3 ^3 F. m! n了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,' |% l- ]% O8 u# `' `& D$ U
" p/ T3 {; E% J R C黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。* p0 W |) T3 @. B4 Y1 O
+ S5 u# ~' y0 m, G* G. a当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
3 i/ F1 C! W5 W8 X9 p; \: a0 N3 Q1 c
升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
% ?1 d; c5 {- H [" T9 {
' \" O: A" u. i' W+ D高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
2 O$ H+ b9 r( [1 {5 w; r& L' ]8 J9 i
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
2 [- T4 h: T1 r2 r, z/ x/ j
P0 T7 {0 H8 g& i于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
3 A$ ]0 B4 V0 o2 c) X* ?( D6 r: ^3 ], G
产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著, ]& U5 k2 l: F @/ Q4 @2 x5 N
" V. M: {5 z4 W跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
9 V' [& D: I4 l$ E% F
& D, m$ D5 ~; b$ t1 n# g4 d之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
6 Z( M9 e R' W" z' G! Q2 W' c& @; H& i
于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
& G: F/ L' n8 \& ]4 W: Y
$ f$ q9 i, S! z6 j而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
* k I5 t" V9 F2 s/ Z4 a
% ^, F/ |3 `' ~5 l, \速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。. h' }! V/ A7 [3 g
0 t& k' @& [# S6 m
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与4 u. Z7 J% S. F p7 T1 h6 g
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全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重9 @1 T" q' M/ h& b3 v3 P
j8 {+ N* X; ~8 o
要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。6 a+ Z8 k; B* ?, f: |7 t( M8 P
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