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[lastpost] => 2804717 黑天鹅原来是它：本轮比特币暴跌的真正原因（转） 1770615815 rainwang
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黄金目前的表现或许会让大家想起2024年的场景。当时，加密货币和美股横盘整理，而黄金则创下新高。比特币在前一天触及近8.5万美元后，
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已回落至8.1万美元以下，过去24小时内下跌近3%。
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0 D+ ~& B' \# o& K0 T7 x/ h这并非比特币首次脱离避险资产定义，2020年新冠疫情引发的市场崩盘中，比特币两天内暴跌逾50%。尽管如此，数字黄金的走势近年来反复调整。
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尤其是特朗普ZF在行政令中提到比特币的避险功能，并计划建立国家比特币潜在储备。' A& s8 ]8 M6 C% m3 w+ p' k6 s
- z" J' Q9 f9 t8 G( u4 z& C& X7 |这一观点的核心在于，通过储备比特币，可以对冲金融不稳定，与储备黄金和石油的逻辑类似。
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不过，也有人持更为严谨的态度。彭博情报分析师Eric Balchunas曾将比特币比作投资中的“辣椒酱”，认为它可以为传统的股票和债券投资组合增添
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一些“风味”。与其他高风险资产相比，比特币吸引他的是“其背后关于美元贬值的叙事”。' _, J# ]* D3 g, t- C4 u" y: x
2 _- F7 B5 T( F0 Y! E3 S2 sBalciunas认为：“对我来说，比特币就像青春期的黄金。”+ t; R5 G3 Y" n: n
5 f5 Z' P3 K' n/ j% C一些市场观察人士还指出，比特币的表现是被过度美化的科技股，而不是数字黄金。该商店总裁Nate Geraci在X平台上表示：“如果比特币被认为等同
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9 @- }+ J1 U4 W1 B$ n7 @ c于‘数字黄金’，那么它的表现就应该像黄金。# |) A1 h0 c0 V7 F" s
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否则，这将强化比特币只是一种高波动性资产的论点。在我看来，大多数加密货币都是科技股，因此目前它们将继续受到科技股抛售的影响。”
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分析人士认为，虽然目前宏观经济前景不稳定，但黄金价格相对稳定。以上一轮周期最高经历（36%的跌幅）来看，如果目前比特币对黄金的涨幅相对+ [" u( y; a( D& v& `, j
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于历史点位是总共下跌了36%（认为跌了30%之后又跌了6%），那么这可能重点关注比特币在这轮宏观周期中可能接近或即将接近一个阶段性底部（局
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3 m/ m3 h6 S2 ]. J部底部），这可能是一个买入信号。
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这么看的话也是不会相等了; c0 f, o* t. ?. x; g* l5 A
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