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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
4 K# m% j8 D# Z+ [' S' x5 y加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。# i3 A5 |2 H' j" I C
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。
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7 r8 W! b& q3 a- c, i K6 X: ~( |根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。4 e. L- H& g: M' y0 ~2 c1 ^, Z
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但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。
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他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。
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1 f/ R* t5 ]+ r可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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他表示,
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“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”5 i6 P- I" y/ q
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BTC 的完美风暴?
9 _5 E9 |/ I( f* _' s加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。
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* |. G; s# F7 t2 o& B- y' K作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。
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这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。
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Real Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。% ~! a5 k& d1 k! Z* f
I- m) g5 I3 h T3 c. x. I- Y“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”8 w( W* D. m4 g# L% @) e" M
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。 x3 q. V3 u s# B7 l! F0 ^
; ?# Y- y1 O1 ^- ~9 _2 P* L他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。, T3 D) L4 q, x( A7 J6 n9 I* ]8 k
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然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
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0 p+ Z6 h5 `+ R- G( [7 g. a即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。
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{ D7 ?2 r2 V) |3 p“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。1 T& c2 E: ]4 |7 o% Q0 n
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结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。! b* F% Y2 H% i( e. X, o
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“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”" _0 v: K9 c5 W. u& @/ m
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