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BTC看非农找趋势 6/21日行情分析
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有朋友说今年BTC总是联动美股,除了美国CPI之外,还需要看什么呢?密切关注黄金三剑客:大哥美联储议息,二哥非农数据,小弟CPI。 p; J. l# {2 d: y5 ]
很多人对加息会议和CPI都有了解,非农数据是什么?近几个月每次公布非农数据,BTC都会大幅波动,老狼预计受流动性影响,非农数据会造成5-10%波动,非农数据比CPI要重要的多,非农数据也叫非农业就业数据,是美联储最重视的经济指标,比如2020年3月非农数据大幅降低,说明美国正面临失业潮,吓得美联储直接把信贷拉满,开直升机撒钱,几个月的“放水量”超过去十年,美股大宗联手走高,BTC也从3千美元涨到6万美元。
9 L: w/ Y) _; j [# M; t% S放水带来的负面效果也很恶劣,美国通胀正创历史新高,很多人开始觉得加不起油了,原油价格攀升正传导到方方面面,预计明年实际通胀会达到惊人的30%,想想看今天吃火锅花300元,过两年吃火锅花500元,赚的没有花的多,经济学里把这种现象叫“滞胀”,解决的办法就是加息,但有个问题要是加息刺破泡沫引起金融危机该怎么办?所以关键的指标就在于非农数据,美国只保就业,只要就业人数多都有工作,经济泡沫破裂就再放水,水多了加面,面多了加水,只要非农数据向好,就往死加息,直到CPI回到正轨,按照这个思路来看,非农数据才是真正的前瞻指标。
8 g* q" U. G9 W9 y这并不是空穴来风,今年以来非农数据连续超出预期,甚至有美国人接受采访说赚不赚钱无所谓,就想上班解解闷。只有3月非农比较差,BTC也仅在3月出现大幅反弹。
* K& X0 M9 G! R; U
e6 P. ?2 j. U# v2 h) s最新非农数据将在7月8日发布,如果非农很差,CPI回落,7月加息就会扑空,届时流动性预期会大增,BTC有望迎来真正的报复性拉升。 6 ^, \( L! E! Z/ F% w) v( z4 A
9 ~% r1 L$ O) @" U; z0 T5 I5 ]
BTC:
: N8 m2 c) C9 J' {+ ^$ n" e4 @BTC回踩5日线,伴随量能减弱,进入三角收敛走势,小时线连续插针,确认阻力抛压,上方小顶点降低20848美元是阻力线关键点,只有快速拉升突破20848美元,才能走出新一轮冲高走势,接下来BTC在20848美元触顶回落。 , F" h% M1 b& i: }$ d/ j7 U2 M
阻力位:20848,21302,21677
1 B+ u& i+ F' ^& \/ @" P' m$ }: O3 Q" H支撑位:20132,19578,19025
+ T! q) y" a. E2 ~) @$ P x* h3 M* { ], E0 d5 k9 s r
ETH: 3 Q" o9 |: ?; R$ o
伴随三箭爆仓告于段落,ETH进入修复阶段,小时线连续插针,成交量持续减弱,ETH做缩量上冲,需要进一步筑底,上方1145.3美元是箱体关键点,ETH需要放量突破1145.3美元,才能走出补涨走势,接下来ETH在1145.3美元冲高回落。
4 n b5 ~0 V& V2 q% P阻力位:1145.3,1176.5,1193.5 3 l) _6 J0 O! V' ?: ^6 P: A! w
支撑位:1094.5,1063.2,1044.7 $ h; h1 z4 s. l6 E
: n+ ?$ E1 k" l1 k+ Z8 R
GMT: 1 ^6 \5 v. [+ e+ D. p
昨天老狼聊过GMT表现非常强势,低点不断抬高,多头加大撑盘力度,GMT仍处于上冲走势,上方0.8美元是插针关键点,多头量能持续减弱,说明需要进一步筑底,接下来GMT在0.8美元做小双头回落。
$ r% g2 G; C# g1 L8 j) I) O+ R0 q阻力位:0.8,0.84,0.9 # R/ t, ~% `+ S4 p5 J, A
支撑位:0.73,0.68,0.65 ' T' Q" x8 o4 Z1 u
" {; J, q/ H' l* v S5 p8 [DOGE:
" M9 y8 `7 c# w! d+ ~4 ]$ BDOGE连续插针,伴随量能减弱,联动主流币种,进入三角收敛走势,上方0.061美元是插针关键点,只有放量突破站稳0.061美元,才能筑底走强,进入新一轮补涨行情,接下来DOGE在0.061美元冲高回落。
* q0 b6 q. t! g9 V9 P9 g% c阻力位:0.061,0.063,0.066 3 Q( P h4 f* V0 M6 A
支撑位:0.058,0.056,0.052 & O4 P2 _& z& L* f* F
SHIB:
# _4 g6 j9 \% b* ~SHIB小时线连续插针,确认箱体走势,上方0.0000082美元是箱体关键点,参考6月中震荡走势,SHIB需要进一步筑底,接下来SHIB在0.0000082美元插针回落。 ; ^. Q# i {2 L, S
阻力位:0.0000082,0.0000085,0.0000088
) f* i- U T/ A$ O& i支撑位:0.0000079,0.0000077,0.0000073
. ^+ g% l* I2 }* T% i距离7月加息和“三剑客指标”公布还有段时间,加上三箭等利空告于段落,市场进入修复期,有朋友问老狼对机构清盘,百年难遇的加息周期有什么看法,老狼觉得无论是大通胀加息也好,还是平台等利空跑路,都是牛熊转换周期的一部分,2020年初叫百年难遇的“大宗灾”,2015年叫百年难遇的英镑脱欧,巴菲特说只要你活的时间足够长,你总能遇上几个“百年难遇”,关键在于当你真的碰到这些黑天鹅的时候,是否能从高点跑出来,再从低点进去呢,是否能克制贪婪,压抑恐惧逆周期操作呢?如果可以的话,看见这类大利空应该会很高兴,终于有机会、有空间去操作了,反而看到当年通过ETF等利好感到不安和恐慌,在外人看来你头脑不大正常,但市场总会给你相应的“礼物”,所以老狼觉得这些都是大好事,是未来牛市的一部分,尽管当前是如此的沮丧。 / u8 Y5 l& v# }" l6 G' d& a
来源:金色财经 |
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