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[lastpost] => 2643859 比特币减半后有哪些爆富机会？牛市结束了还是在蓄力大牛市？（转） 1713519210 人生如赌
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几个技术指标指向加密市场底部。然而，当前前所未有的宏观经济不确定性意味着不能排除再次下跌的可能。- r- V$ Y' z+ @: |& B; M
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关键要点
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) k/ r" e( P' k* { H) S当前的欧洲能源危机可能会迫使美联储转向其货币紧缩机制。尽管如此，由于通胀没有放缓的迹象，在加密市场出现有意义的复苏之前，未来可能会有更多的痛苦。 7 [# }) B5 ~8 u4 H" r9 j( i* c
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加密投降
; Q$ E! ^' n0 |9 [& E" o; C4 r首先，好消息。最近几周，几项重大技术指标闪现了买入信号，强化了加密市场可能已达到最低点的情况。未实现净损益(NUPL)、Pi 周期底部和Puell 倍数都达到了历史上最低的周期水平。 & W6 d( M7 h- h0 g+ e* s! K$ p! H
抛开技术方面的问题，加密市场对宏观经济新闻的反应方式也值得考虑。在 6 月份的消费者价格指数数据创下 9.1% 的 40 个月新高之后，发生了重大变化。许多市场参与者预计，在利空消息传出后，加密货币将再次下跌。然而，相反的事情发生了。自 CPI 发布以来，加密货币小幅走高，赶上了任何试图进行后期卖空的人。同样，周三75 个基点的加息和昨天的负 GDP 增长自相矛盾地推高了加密货币，这表明市场现在可能已经“消化”了当前的经济下行趋势。
0 E- ~2 ^2 v8 w- k I6 T' ^ u( I1 J尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在周三加息后表示“放慢加息步伐已变得合适”，但他也为必要时“更大规模”加息敞开了大门。持续的加息，加上美联储国债和抵押贷款支持证券的抛售，将收紧资金流动，几乎肯定会抑制加密货币等风险资产。
5 \! a0 ^- A& X5 ^- q8 `另一个宏观问题是能源成本——尤其是在欧洲。乌克兰战争以及随之而来的对俄罗斯能源的抵制加剧了本已令人担忧的全球通货膨胀率。冬天来了，许多欧洲国家很可能没有能源来为他们的公民家供暖，当然这不是乔愿意支付的平均价格。如果对俄罗斯石油和天然气的禁运继续下去，未来几个月欧洲将不得不依赖美国提供能源。
( b5 r4 `+ @* v3 Q w7 |( a' x7 T这就是问题所在。您可能已经注意到，在美联储加息和货币紧缩政策的推动下，近几个月来欧元兑美元大幅走弱。与此同时，欧洲国家似乎可能需要购买美国能源来保持经济运行和居民温暖，这使美国陷入困境。
# f3 I4 F. v1 B/ r- P- A0 ~0 g从广义上讲，美国有两种选择：采取措施通过向欧洲经济注入流动性来加强欧元兑美元的汇率，或者让欧洲国家因能源成本上升而违约。请记住，许多欧洲国家和欧洲中央银行持有大量美国债务，这意味着如果它们违约，最终也会损害美国经济。 ( E8 [7 ? {" {3 ^4 [; I
因此，美联储可能不得不结束其货币紧缩政策以避免欧洲发生灾难。目前，从现在到冬季，美国有一个窗口可以继续加息。然而，欧洲将很快达到一个临界点，美联储将被迫通过停止或逆转当前的货币政策来缓解一些压力，从而削弱美元。 6 Z% i& x6 K! M# H0 q4 j% Q
最终的问题是：在美联储被迫转向之前，市场能否走低？在我看来，考虑到导致比特币跌破 18,000 美元的大量去杠杆化，加密货币很难在短期内创下新低。不过，我认为如果宏观形势恶化，我们当然可以重新审视这些水平。 7 J# X. ]0 H3 F D* k$ G
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