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摩根大通在减半后关注4.2万美元
8 j8 ], Q- t N" ~比特币（BTC）一直处于令人难以置信的上升轨道上，实现了几个月前似乎不太可能的里程碑。加密货币市场充满了兴奋，但在这种兴奋中，摩根大通的一个发人深省的预测蒙上了阴影：一旦围绕即将到来的减半事件的兴奋情绪减弱，比特币可能会面临严重的低迷，可能会跌至42000美元。
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# ^, U' d; v& m- s6 k- t2024年2月：比特币最强劲的月份: L* m4 Q, _; a$ U
2024年2月是比特币自2020年12月牛市以来表现最强劲的月份之一。比特币飙升了44%，打破了5万美元和6万美元的门槛，达到了6.4万美元的惊人高点。这一峰值发生在美国推出现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）后短暂跌破40000美元大关之后。
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来源
! q* t" d" `3 p. S5 J X尽管普遍持乐观态度，但摩根大通分析师警告称，定于4月举行的比特币减半活动可能会对加密货币的价格势头构成挑战。他们认为，区块奖励的减少以及随之而来的矿工生产成本的上升可能会给比特币价格带来下行压力。3 `. w' `' f+ I$ @4 I7 b7 L0 D
: s8 l" E. o9 l% `1 K# {; \摩根大通的研究报告强调了比特币的生产成本与其市场价值之间的历史相关性。目前的生产成本徘徊在26500美元左右，预计减半后将翻一番，达到53000美元左右。生产成本的大幅上升，加上比特币哈希率可能下降20%，可能会将价格降至42000美元。
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1 _0 @ S9 S2 t0 u+ U! g摩根大通分析师团队负责人Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou强调，4.2万美元的估值不仅是一个假设情景，而且是一个现实水平，一旦围绕减半事件的乐观情绪在4月后消散，比特币价格自然会被吸引到这个水平。
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: V7 T5 N, J) k: t# O, Y5 _* y另请阅读：比特币ETF交易量今天达到46.9亿美元$ G6 ]8 A" L! [% M4 D/ s
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快乐减半后的管理期望4 i. ?: i+ _' u7 i
比特币减半事件大约每四年发生一次，并降低新比特币的开采速度，这一概念长期以来一直是爱好者和分析师关注的焦点。尽管过去的减半事件通常助长了看涨情绪，导致随着新硬币供应的减少价格上涨，但摩根大通的分析提醒我们，市场动态是复杂的，仅靠情绪可能无法无限期地维持比特币的上涨轨迹。0 r N# L( N' n
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尽管围绕比特币的牛市情绪盛行，但投资者应该注意机构分析师发出的警告信号。42000美元的价格预测提醒我们，市场调整是任何资产旅程中不可或缺的一部分，尤其是在动荡的加密货币市场中。- [/ `7 l1 c2 h: o# R& D
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另请阅读：比特币超过俄罗斯卢布，成为第14大货币/ u! _* Q( f- ]7 ?) K4 K
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随着加密货币社区热切期待即将到来的减半事件，保持平衡的观点至关重要，既要承认进一步收益的潜力，也要承认与市场波动相关的固有风险。尽管比特币的未来仍不确定，但有一点是显而易见的：它的韧性和挑战传统智慧的能力继续吸引着全球投资者。
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靠脑子赚钱的机构就是厉害啊。  |
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