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当前离线
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当然,其他主流和山寨们也都有所上涨,但BTC的涨幅超过了大部分山寨们确实超出市场预期。
( ^+ L- \/ ~' R* J3 s% d1 W
. ?0 y) P% E# u) q4 q* q9 u2 V这一轮行情,驱动因素是华尔街ETF机构们的资金入场,而他们的资金只能通过ETF买入BTC,所以比特币逼空式上涨也就可以理解了。) m. {+ i, I I& a" `* V5 t" h
7 w9 _' a6 e4 ~7 ?* N ~
由于BTC接近历史新高,强行拉动了行情,但在美联储加息缩表2年之后,加密市场整体流动性还是无法和2021年相比,加上市场还未出现现象级的生态,所以无法实现普涨,一部分场内资金选择推升了meme币的行情,这几天很多meme币单日涨幅甚至超过50%。所以就呈现出了BTC和meme币们上涨,而其他主流币“滞涨”的分化格局。; K5 d; t1 C8 r
% N$ w0 k0 s; Z1 e9 e
还有一个原因是,很多大市值项目在2024年中有大量的解锁,比如arb、op、sui、strk等公链都面临甚至超过十亿美元的解锁,资金也炒不动。
$ t, h& R! t* t+ ~; U' C
: k0 X, \' H/ h& `; _虽然美联储的定向放水和高利息吸引全球资金流入美国造成了美元净流动性是增加的(这也是美股和加密市场上涨的直接原因),但毕竟美联储经过了2年的加息和缩表,现在全球整体的流动性是减少的,所以当下市场的上涨更可能是源自于情绪和杠杆资金的推动。: f0 a& S9 p ^9 v
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市场如果想出现和以前周期的普涨格局,还是得等美联储实质性降息后再次开启印钞机。所以加密市场挣钱越来越难了,踏错节奏或者选错板块,可能在一个上涨行情中还是亏钱的。
- X; F7 ^& {3 x _
& v; G% O Q( L5 N! \ f- V, _BTC在3万美元以下时,一年没移动过的比特币占流通量的70%以上,涨至6万美元时大户们卖出的动力依然不强,目前还不知道大户们的心里价位大概在什么位置。
" e" S+ o4 _9 B8 R
/ d7 W- Q; c4 O- j此外,衍生品市场是未来不可忽视的一个重要市场,期货和期权合约持仓量已经在300亿美元级别,它们带来的财富波动已经不比现货市场小了。所以机构们挣钱不一定只是单纯的现货高抛低吸,还可能是和衍生品市场联动割韭菜。它们抛售筹码把价格砸的很低,可能是在衍生品市场围猎多头资金,最后现货市场可能亏了,但衍生品市场挣的更多。; P6 _3 y" F, [5 Z. y' ~ F
* M V. d3 i7 m' ?2 O4 S# _1 K, z
ETF刚通过还不到两个月,就已经主导了加密市场的格局,等它们的筹码达到一定程度,对市场的操纵可能更加得心应手。' e* V0 x4 A) I
9 N4 E- N+ u* r2021年时,coinbase上市,特斯拉入场BTC,萨尔瓦多把BTC定为法定货币,灰度买买买,一众上市公司入场加密领域,大家也觉得未来市场不会“暴跌”了,但2022年luna暴雷,FTX倒闭,跌的依然惨烈,2022年的熊市本质是杠杆被打爆。没有“此次不一样”,剧情都相似。$ w* v: z4 Z0 _! ?9 D8 c
4 B2 m1 j+ u0 g8 }此轮行情,BTC是有ETF新增资金流入的,行情比较“实”,但其他币种更多是情绪和杠杆的推动(还没有现象级的生态),行情会炒到哪里没人能预测,不做合约和杠杆,稳健点还是定投大饼,逢低入场,屯住主流现货。4 s# j2 Q* ^1 O2 P4 A
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当前离线
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那么多货币也是需要人买的啊。 |
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0 E3 N5 Q( j8 c; N" l N% c# N
比特币这个龙头带起来的啊,不过我没钱没胆跟风 |
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