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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
7 {( r* ]% ]5 H- C5 k1 s0 l2 d( J6 Q2 f$ |9 _% M! R' x, |
其实原文标题不是这样的* J! r1 H" K! D5 _5 W+ e/ p* Y7 O
- ]: A! c' n w9 m, Z" ]这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
2 }1 p/ V! J% Q8 S* Y4 q* I$ k他希望能和上帝来场赌局。, K- R: i; P# ?/ ~8 d, [9 }
U6 ] N5 Z2 \ 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。/ O( V0 C; a7 g) _4 H9 F
9 ]) s/ t: d- j6 R" E# k 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
4 J8 i* i; Y9 y- Z
5 m0 r$ X7 ?2 S; S {1 b+ H「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 0 m% K) m( D2 H' v
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」3 B* L- S9 j( ^1 }) U) _
. Z3 v1 Z2 s8 I) ^
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
: B P6 u; l5 U6 X) C4 R( K 3 \6 {" a) m2 c. z
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，4 M& n: x) v, D& e/ Q$ F
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
2 v, _6 {7 S' c6 q长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 * Q4 w" { h* U1 b* L6 s ^. q
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。& M+ n; W5 r. R
心想赢定了。
7 L- @- f) e' N6 c8 i$ D, V# z" I
2 l N/ Y3 D. \& u' C& Z( W没想到开始不到半刻钟，
' ~! \' \) e6 ^/ h0 s赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
/ {% I0 ^! [$ |% q" Q# o4 ~
- S! o' H! m, M" h. \- L2 \赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
, H7 \5 |% w* l8 f但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
7 P- D8 U8 G& ~' ` : Y: C8 @ _! R$ H2 Q
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
# r$ L3 V2 n4 g' b3 V他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 3 n) g- x" g, f; g4 `* c3 N2 |* j
上帝回答道：' j0 I( b+ V# a! _ L' ?
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」6 d! W% ]7 F! t% N! ?0 c
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」# }5 z$ {0 _& e
「而不是先发生在我身上。」9 Z, u2 Z0 M8 W& V
3 U9 `% i( p! ~6 T- l 赌徒恍然大悟，
5 I0 W$ R! Q8 c& m% X& q5 c& ]+ ]3 \+ K原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
- }" ^. k% J/ _9 \竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
1 }8 K+ `+ L" r/ U$ O" ]! n「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
* O0 {: l% U; V: O( R: q8 R5 G上帝说完便不见踪影。
) d& ]/ h. q- v! m
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
# }1 x8 U. d0 g: `7 P8 o6 |若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，- n6 H: n3 N/ E
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
- \" e+ f- k/ u h' n对赌徒十分有利。4 }$ _, f+ i/ S3 ~( M
0 D4 C1 Q& e* d& l: r6 l
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
! l2 G3 ~$ J" F# C n0 f% X/ G+ q在还没掷到1000次之前，
2 Y. D- {' T0 ^8 ]: S! p仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
" e+ V+ F! M0 ^6 ~2 z' F( W# T( C; L4 H, z7 K( t
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。7 ~! S; T6 ?+ @5 V5 S, N
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。" y7 _: b1 |4 R' h
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
' I3 H; b0 x% w; ^& r; _9 @
' y% Q3 ^, o6 V 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
' L" P$ r# s0 C% Q! o, x" u# {; ?
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