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预知市场底部是不可能的，但我们可以利用三个指标来获得熊市何时接近结束的早期信号。
2 @! K' A+ Z3 T6 u8 n' B8 x价格每天都在下跌，目前我们心中的问题是：“市场何时见底，熊市将持续多久？”
, E( b1 X0 a8 E) J4 O, x# e虽然无法预测熊市何时结束，但研究之前的下跌趋势可以帮助我们了解该阶段何时结束。 ( |8 ?" U1 B4 N; K
以下是华尔街交易员用来帮助了解熊市何时结束的三个指标。 * b. o) t4 R5 Z. T7 L
RSI 指标 判断底部之王
* N2 H, S. Y. K9 r a2 G6 n相对强度指数 (RSI)是了解熊市何时可能处于低点的技术指标。 7 ]* W; O! y4 @0 R: v9 D( ^, m9 E: N7 J
更具体地说，在之前的熊市中，比特币 RSI 跌至超卖区域，并在 BTC 创出低点跌破 16 分时。
5 M5 y0 m% j0 D! ]. z3 R. v& S基于图中用橙色圆圈突出显示的两个实例，比特币价格跌至RSI指数16时难以进一步下跌，并且RSI 再次回升至 70 上方进入超买区域，才确认低点已经出现，这表明需求的增加再次回到了市场。 ; z6 H( y) j. q
/ `3 M! R% g$ {* M
BTC/USDT 日线图表。图片资料来源：TradingView
. h: r {. v a( [9 i1 M) r市场价值对实现价值 ( L& n* M) X6 p+ V' F) ?3 T1 M
实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）Z 分数是一个指标，旨在识别比特币相对于其‘公允价值’被极度高估或低估的时期。 . z% m G/ `! \7 z( l; ?( H
图中的蓝线代表比特币的当前市值，橙线代表比特币的价格，红线代表 Z 分数，这是一种“标准差测试，在数据中拉出市值和实现价值。”
0 j% P* D5 F. o4 i如图所示：底部的浅绿色区域突出显示了之前的熊市中 Z 分数低于 0.1的位置，表示比特币价格已严重低估。该指标回升至 0.1 分以上，将确认新的上升趋势的开始。
' j9 P) Z# j ]8 M2 v. t5 y$ u根据历史表现，该指标表明比特币在目前仍可能存在下行空间，随后会出现较长时间的横向价格走势。 0 K6 i5 d+ Q! R b, y& u
1 G( P) |) c1 z
MVRV Z 分数。图片资料来源：LookIntoBitcoin
- N6 r. b( @5 H& `' u( [, x0 b/ Y两年移动平均乘数通道 $ G! ]. o; } S Z, A5 ]
观察熊市何时结束的最终指标是 2 年移动平均乘数通道。该指标跟踪 两年移动平均线 (MA) 与比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。
( }4 k C. P/ ?7 c7 N下图中蓝色线为两年平均移动线，红色线为比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。只要 BTC 的价格跌破 2 年均线，市场就进入熊市区域。一旦价格回升至 2 年均线上方，就会出现上涨趋势。 4 K+ j3 O) V; R$ q( X: C: Z3 P
另一方面，价格攀升至 红色线预示着牛市可能见顶，是获利了结的好时机。
7 o' ]; s. m8 i4 S1 `6 r* U; i
8 j6 `- H) I7 x. u! M9 e
两年 MA 乘数通道 |
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