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[lastpost] => 2813482 马斯克家族代币MUSKIt能否复制狗狗币神话？《财富》深度预测6000倍增长空间（转） 1773153505 小钱儿
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人6 Z* H- T; ?# J! n
. Y% ]7 U" Z* }5 Z, @8 o认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
5 H4 O2 q+ N' h/ I3 z6 w$ Z
2 M* H/ N+ o: i* v) L; F而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
& ~, q3 v3 n% r" X* {0 B7 i; E$ Y3 N ?/ t& w4 O
的千禧一代。
2 k4 v' S, i' ~5 F& j从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
5 O& a0 t9 P2 L& T# \
0 l/ M+ l; H, b: l的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“2 S$ E* u- o7 b. I* o5 u) S
$ L- f$ w6 r/ B+ G0 w1 R+ `7 ` 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加& u' r+ y: `8 I& o( ~
) U# A3 ^8 w9 {& l密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
/ I9 E* Y- r. Q J+ Q, q1 z, l
5 m) ?- r0 U7 i; l) E《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
* q, S% L" A' g6 m8 x
5 j8 c: H; `, K的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
& a5 p) S1 s- q6 z/ F# g8 ^7 |+ |4 Y6 z6 Y0 a+ [) L
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
: m; Z8 X9 }9 o# i3 r$ U3 d. ~8 s. |; i9 ?
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为; D- G) t7 H" J# `6 v9 B5 d9 Z
/ W. O" Y! C9 W
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。2 P2 }2 h/ B7 e2 }8 K' T( F
& G0 Z: p& }5 N" k据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
. g) R: G) _" I) I: n* {
! P0 I4 V* f( p0 Z" f8 _息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
5 |: ~8 t, `$ n, x8 H' D4 v2 C) }: r
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
% ~" p4 B* d! w2 j8 J: s+ j5 Y2 S# P4 f
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
1 Q+ W+ c0 T' w8 Y0 ~) J5 `/ J
6 q! k" T! |# D; q: k4 L" B$ L, ^传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不: i# Z! D6 B1 |- [
9 y5 g% S9 k, Z ]8 Q到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
7 G2 [" ~( i3 b9 A+ g$ R; Z4 c0 K) K( L- B! g
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成5 o f( l2 z+ v6 F7 _" l: b4 t" L2 H
) R: t! r' |$ ]% A. J
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体" @/ s, n5 {1 w# C0 I4 B) {; n
/ n3 J+ @7 N2 i/ t1 @# U系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货 F, k; Y# H0 H
& z% N# ^% a) c% c. S
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致/ I: ]: t$ ?7 N9 f9 F6 b8 C6 X
1 J' z$ \7 g! Y, b# k* S* v( }4 W未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
, D3 D6 w8 F ]& Y- O+ `% E6 g9 p& w; S) a/ Q. W: P
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。2 \ B. ]' B: ~3 J8 a+ }
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