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[虚拟币交流]
市场风险高企难挡投机狂潮 比特币与meme代币热浪滚滚（转）
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本周，美国国债收益率的连续五天上涨虽对大选后的股市狂热有所抑制，但市场投机边缘的景象却截然不同，比特币及其同类货币不断刷新投机热情的新高， d! I8 O) b* `; t% }
同时一系列小众加密货币和与埃隆·马斯克相关的资产也大幅飙升。然而，传统风险资产的表现相对惨淡，标普500指数结束连续三周上涨，市场广度恶化，而比) A Y/ d/ B2 w6 y+ _; g
; p3 @; I% g. K1 \$ |$ L特币及一系列可疑的meme代币却逆流而上。小投资者在市场上的主导地位持续显现，市场过度扩张的迹象显现，高盛的风险头寸和情绪指标达到2018年以来最& ~! B# W8 N+ s1 a
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高水平。在美联储下周政策会议前，华尔街暂缓大举押注，多数经济学家预测明年货币宽松速度将放缓。
7 c0 Z5 H) T4 a& @: X具体来看，本周美国国债收益率跃升24个基点，为今年以来最大涨幅，但并未阻止投机者的热情。比特币在短暂跌破95,000美元后迅速反弹，连续第六周上涨，并
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- M. t+ c' u. Q# Z带动了一批可疑的meme代币飙升。同时，迈克尔·塞勒的MicroStrategy Inc.股价被推高至400美元以上，一种名为“fartcoin”的加密代币市值也飙升至7亿美元以上。: n& }" \) ]' I8 |1 U
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这些现象凸显了日内交易员的持久力和市场的投机氛围。( s6 V4 a. ~8 F
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- ]9 |- w; ]$ D' U8 M* L1 h在传统风险资产方面，本周美国主要股指指数的涨幅为特朗普连任以来最小，标普500指数下跌0.6%，结束了连续三周的上涨势头。摩根士丹利跟踪
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动量股的多空篮子在过去五天内下跌近3.5%，罗素2000指数和尚未盈利的科技公司指数均下跌近3%。此外，市场广度也有所恶化，指数成分股中不0 w) ~6 a% t5 A* v5 @' Y5 w/ m$ h/ y1 k
! @: j: s0 D1 w& j; L+ _( D足一半的交易价格高于其50日移动平均线。最大的长期国债ETF经历了今年最糟糕的一周，下跌超过4%。
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小投资者在市场上的主导地位仍在继续显现，这一点从场外交易场所的交易量可见一斑。特别是那些由股票批发商运营的交易平台，例如为Robinhood . x; d+ [5 w X" `
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Markets Inc.等零售客户提供服务的场所，其交易量已超过50%，并且最近达到了历史新高。) ?6 A/ v% \& z6 v
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同时，埃隆·马斯克几乎所有股票都大幅上涨，特斯拉公司的股价又上涨了12%，自大选以来市值已超过5000亿美元。一只名为Destiny Tech100 Inc.的
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4 G( D! X |6 s5 w封闭式基金也飙升了500%以上，部分原因是它持有马斯克私人持有的SpaceX。. y; `; P% f( q, ]3 ^ }
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0 U- ]* r/ m& i在美联储下周政策会议召开之前，华尔街暂缓了大举押注，预计决策者将推动降息四分之一个百分点。/ h# }; X( |, a" _5 |* ]
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然而，观点并非一致，德意志银行和法国巴黎银行预测美联储今年不会采取更多行动。明年的货币宽松速度也预计将比三个月前官员们预测的放缓幅度更大，
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大多数经济学家预测2025年只会降息三次。$ j# I3 [$ i/ W
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理查德伯恩斯坦顾问公司副首席投资官Dan Suzuki表示，虽然12月份降息是风险偏好的一部分，但它可能不足以让股市继续上涨。! H' o; @' L9 u3 @
# B& `! t" M' J. q" ^Suzuki称：“除非鲍威尔的语气非常温和，否则我认为这不会成为短期内的重要催化剂。但它为市场提供了一些下行支撑。”) q# k* {8 Z+ o4 C) S4 u6 H! B
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