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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。
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& n) d2 ?; C0 hBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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$ d4 {8 V8 U" K/ t' JPark 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普. j6 P0 E8 K& m! a ~" O3 g
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。3 A# J8 q- u1 ]2 g7 t* D
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Park 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施6 a4 j3 S x% _1 @! \6 P. w
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。, B9 s6 t) {0 C: n5 b' z a
( [0 F5 ~1 a2 ~& ~1 {, E0 R5 I( _美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。, A4 G; K0 [: ] Z+ E+ s, z) ^ E
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. X. t6 H0 y( l' xBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”; B; S4 _8 h t$ {! N; c' O
. O) b4 g) I: ?3 w. e“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率
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$ d, P3 ?! u% R: V低于当前水平的天数百分比。- B! u' y, T6 F& e# T6 i
( n {: q% i# ?. y7 n根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。! [6 j* P0 P4 }8 Q) J5 `
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据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。
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今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。5 }+ D. R2 F `% C5 o
8 X$ b$ K# E# P. `追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于) c) _% N5 u0 R3 T; w' r: x A. w3 H
# D8 M$ u7 V' _: \上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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