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[lastpost] => 2802150 随着孙宇晨力挺币安的比特币押注，波场和比特币国债市场正发生碰撞（转） 1769838709 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币测试 50 周均线集群，ETF 资金流入保持稳定（转）
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比特币本周开局关键，美国现货ETF资金流入略高于去年同期水平。与此同时，比特币价格在50周均线和指数移动平均线下方徘徊，短期内可能出现反弹或再次受阻。& ~0 o4 D' m) r! E- q3 l# r
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比特币ETF资金流入量略高于去年同期，2026年初的趋势与历史预期相符。
: f5 ^6 `8 ?$ u& d比特币现货ETF据CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju分享的数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国比特币流入量已达约3800枚，高于去年同期约3500枚。图表显示，2026年初的累计流入量略高于2025年同期水平。
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按年份统计流入美国现货ETF的比特币净累计资金。数据来源： CryptoQuant，Ki Young Ju2 ]# h" j+ x5 J0 J# U; k
8 a3 w, v1 |3 S( ^0 ~与此同时，数据显示，当前的资金流入速度符合常见的季节性规律。从历史数据来看，1月份ETF资金流入通常较为温和，而更强劲的资金积累通常始于第一季度后期。过去的周期表明，规模更大的资金流入浪潮往往形成于2月至4月之间，而非年初。
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与往年相比，尽管同比有所增长，但2026年初的整体趋势仍与以往基本一致。因此，根据以往周期在第一季度之后的发展规律，资金流入轨迹表明，ETF驱动的需求更关键的阶段可能尚未到来。2 T6 T3 W/ Q" c9 e) _7 K
; {1 D6 k% C- ]6 d比特币在接近 50 周移动平均线附近将面临关键考验。
]0 k$ n- \- p, j同时，比特币根据分析师Jelle（网名CryptoJelleNL）分享的图表显示，比特币价格在50周移动平均线和指数移动平均线附近徘徊，进入了一个重要的技术分析周。TradingView图表显示，比特币在从近期高点回落后进入盘整阶段，截图时价格接近9万美元中段。" Y+ K% j+ B; @. `3 P6 M& n; X
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比特币 50 周移动平均线/指数移动平均线集群图。来源： CryptoJelleNL( ^) ^0 |- U. y1 }) V, ]0 p U
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图表显示，50周移动平均线（MA）和指数移动平均线（EMA）是关键的决策区域，历史上它们曾多次影响中期趋势方向。如果价格持续突破该区间，则表明近期回调后走势强劲，并巩固了始于2023年末的整体上升趋势。相反，如果价格反复未能突破该区间，则表明市场持续犹豫，并增加了价格进入更深层次盘整的风险。0 C( `/ d6 x9 R) s, ~
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周线图上的价格走势显示，尽管近期波动较大，比特币仍守住了其长期上升结构上方。移动平均线群位于上方，因此接下来的交易日对于判断买方能否重新掌控局面，还是卖方会在阻力位附近继续施压至关重要。
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这ETF资金流入看着确实稳，不知道这次比特币能稳住反弹不 |
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