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[lastpost] => 2793643 比特币价格逼近9万美元，失业救济申请人数带来意外惊喜（转） 1767197284 jackcool1011
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
3 x4 s$ h! U/ ?" W# u8 G8 H) {以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. & h8 ^- ]' _+ P9 `( t
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 8 K; w' V" i: v+ F+ y
以太坊基金集体亏损
I2 m8 }( t; m9 E3 [/ |6 F4 V3 }根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 / d' @: L$ V0 _2 e$ n; R5 f, T3 e
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
2 I! f$ E, c; b+ X与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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2 U4 ~( c! ^, W0 |4 f流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
4 G4 }& b2 j% x) k9 E' j这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
- L$ C0 c' k( ?, X& m以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 2 o$ q5 d/ @; ^3 t @
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: \/ @+ b9 W! \# {* J( ^/ }# l6月5日的TVL以太坊
* J; S2 r/ n: D1 ?( P但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 , a. k8 f( V# x- J. M$ h( v
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
) g. _+ u9 _: j+ j6 J) I男性讲述金融时报:
; m' R2 h+ B: S. ?“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
/ m# O& ^. _. F' p呆滞的技术面 1 {0 E. v! g3 U0 i0 m
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 . m& k% A) g- L6 ~. Q% K9 z# l
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
4 Y7 U" m6 v/ D8 E5 i+ f& k0 [# R; ^根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 * T3 y8 l% R- k7 y/ y
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ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 5 S, i5 j7 t& `$ `4 i! ]
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
$ t* v! {, t r# ~0 o8 b) D交易所的ETH储备正在增加
4 c; L% n7 A# iCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
( \1 x. d8 b3 M" d, I7 C* s. K+ f+ H9 `自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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# P2 q7 z6 f8 c+ w1 \; O p; T以太坊外汇储备
+ g3 r4 }) b+ q2 z5 _ \通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
1 o% r4 [# o0 v- f8 W% I来源：金色财经 |
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