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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人; e7 v' a& r3 p3 f2 z8 ~
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，' p4 t* y6 x x8 u5 a. ^
' K( P4 ?8 N0 ?7 c+ u7 H$ {而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
! A0 ?9 p7 C" e5 P, [/ A! I6 `$ y) z$ L% @* }5 x" j+ R& f: I) Z
的千禧一代。5 @/ n) W+ G; S) y/ {
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB/ S' j4 Y1 r) T! y
5 S8 g& M$ V1 E; E3 U的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“4 A# c- _5 j9 f5 }# F
! t I1 z! k F) }& M 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加' G# x5 n0 e' n
9 V$ z; Y4 a6 B4 K/ [6 f
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据1 g( ]% ^" q$ ^
3 q7 v; x s7 f3 |《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成/ b( @2 c' F6 I& U% i; ^6 z
) N2 d+ i: h, d2 R. p的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
) O9 S' n$ r) a5 f
2 b) q' X; p: F! O报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；( D7 u8 i6 F$ p# P5 S9 p: g3 S1 {
6 k! Q; {/ Z0 I, w* S$ t0 \10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为. U& E* f8 r7 B" x% B: }
" M" h+ e" I5 e6 I
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
5 O; W( D! Q- `5 G/ F3 n
# c/ F8 s% ~" E; p0 F据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降+ T* V1 g7 B1 L; U5 K" T% [
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。4 _$ D3 r$ u5 m2 n9 J0 C
0 Z6 z: |# X8 _: }6 @" Y2 ? ?4 Z
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密/ N2 C1 s4 k, s$ p0 V
u* u( D* O/ a; H; R3 V M世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富, y; D+ C* J$ m3 d; x: ~# O1 s
/ V p9 o2 p8 E2 J1 d q2 K传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
/ m' z7 Y9 [) [4 P7 c! j2 {
+ L, F1 w7 S! }( w到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一, ?( H* U* u7 k& g% `
' z7 L6 V& v/ o( G9 i" Z, b代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
) [- a) O. x% Z' ~. ?
1 @* k$ C4 I+ y( m5 t) u/ ]$ E本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
1 v4 r2 e$ r" ?, z' d" x% v! R; \/ w3 k0 Q. p* V
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
" v/ b3 l6 l, D% ]! \7 J. }% S8 E9 J+ X$ }; c* V5 ^4 F
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
0 T$ M/ R! |; _/ k7 m' h1 X1 y1 \- ~2 D# G2 N5 D: z0 |8 ^
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富0 P. d0 ]+ z+ B* c) r% U
6 h5 b6 m5 j8 _) ?2 x5 x
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
+ e* S7 W7 u3 `, f& j4 g" t' \+ z' V
* H6 A, H; M; h) M7 s
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