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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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: |5 Z6 y; m& `3 B瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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0 L/ S7 u" }. t6 K0 b衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”) C- Y6 \! K0 {& |" p( [0 Z* H
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益 e* }) [" _( G
2 ?: G* k7 Z" D: ]$ K率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。% t- n M7 F* S6 N7 N- J
1 ]3 ~% W" k: X: G4 T. F! t! T然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国0 o Y: W$ e; N( \1 t8 e
" y ^2 X+ w: ]# F+ Y. `) T长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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. U6 c, u$ N4 m' K; ]是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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% o, t5 j3 T+ S, P6 R" V8 T历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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r) F1 C, g$ Y- o+ a标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。1 t8 U7 V$ z5 _3 O/ \( V
4 n# q; _( y- ~* _$ O6 r3 x周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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! F- \4 f6 E! R: o3 ^周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债( ?0 y; M9 C' J
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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8 ]: [2 V4 f# b周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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H& V r! t, q! n3 B7 m1 c, sLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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: x" F) W+ y& h" w& m- [, b根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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9 V/ {5 z' ?8 n年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。5 \0 g: n. o" i6 H2 B
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"" ]. O/ l, V& G8 N
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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