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[lastpost] => 2760047 今天虚拟币市场是大回调啦 1756179376 22301
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。6 E& t6 U4 f* O; `
! G( a7 d/ Y, H! H然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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宏观信号依然支持
2 w. I/ m! [# K( c' Y# e美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。( y1 |! X) ?( J! N' e. k( _
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。
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: ^+ Y0 T( i6 T& {! z) M* v0 b从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。& S: i6 a: A7 x+ \4 a; ~
! r" J3 s) O4 R- Y$ T0 E. u5 x市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。. n1 h7 v! A. }! B
$ ^: @$ i$ ~, u, ? G7 E著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
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" _& Q8 I6 d6 V8 u+ r他补充道，
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/ q' P. ~" O9 \: U& }“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”: t8 g6 |* P) X( C, a! e( u
0 ~2 C3 s; L- p; P韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。3 D) E1 y5 ?& r$ k, l/ l% Y% D
/ ]+ p k6 B" p( ~7 u% w; Q亚洲比特币市场再度走强$ _9 P E" G0 z
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.4 Z0 F/ z: c! {/ L# B/ @
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。 b# s' j$ ~, l5 c$ N* ^% ?
- X& G! p) U. v, n q _然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。7 g9 }2 P v4 H- R! \+ o
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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