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[lastpost] => 2802612 告别24小时延迟：如何通过溢价率预判ETF资金流向 1770002460 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币测试 50 周均线集群，ETF 资金流入保持稳定（转）
[复制链接]
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当前离线
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总在线: 5096 小时
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比特币本周开局关键，美国现货ETF资金流入略高于去年同期水平。与此同时，比特币价格在50周均线和指数移动平均线下方徘徊，短期内可能出现反弹或再次受阻。/ {, t6 F( e6 Q' X0 m& x( L
0 F4 p8 b( \$ `+ q# N1 Q比特币ETF资金流入量略高于去年同期，2026年初的趋势与历史预期相符。
* k5 A( w( u+ t8 `9 B* o& j比特币现货ETF据CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju分享的数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国比特币流入量已达约3800枚，高于去年同期约3500枚。图表显示，2026年初的累计流入量略高于2025年同期水平。
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按年份统计流入美国现货ETF的比特币净累计资金。数据来源： CryptoQuant，Ki Young Ju
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与此同时，数据显示，当前的资金流入速度符合常见的季节性规律。从历史数据来看，1月份ETF资金流入通常较为温和，而更强劲的资金积累通常始于第一季度后期。过去的周期表明，规模更大的资金流入浪潮往往形成于2月至4月之间，而非年初。
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' u p( p/ P% h- k7 A2 L与往年相比，尽管同比有所增长，但2026年初的整体趋势仍与以往基本一致。因此，根据以往周期在第一季度之后的发展规律，资金流入轨迹表明，ETF驱动的需求更关键的阶段可能尚未到来。% i7 X) i# r3 w5 n6 T! w9 k
, ^. Q8 G; ~- ]& w% b* k( m% B比特币在接近 50 周移动平均线附近将面临关键考验。
/ s# i2 C( I7 h同时，比特币根据分析师Jelle（网名CryptoJelleNL）分享的图表显示，比特币价格在50周移动平均线和指数移动平均线附近徘徊，进入了一个重要的技术分析周。TradingView图表显示，比特币在从近期高点回落后进入盘整阶段，截图时价格接近9万美元中段。* I, ~3 i/ A" H p% Q$ U; W b
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比特币 50 周移动平均线/指数移动平均线集群图。来源： CryptoJelleNL
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) |3 y6 f/ g! d, P1 O) e图表显示，50周移动平均线（MA）和指数移动平均线（EMA）是关键的决策区域，历史上它们曾多次影响中期趋势方向。如果价格持续突破该区间，则表明近期回调后走势强劲，并巩固了始于2023年末的整体上升趋势。相反，如果价格反复未能突破该区间，则表明市场持续犹豫，并增加了价格进入更深层次盘整的风险。
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' {1 y5 B+ t# a) w( @# \. A周线图上的价格走势显示，尽管近期波动较大，比特币仍守住了其长期上升结构上方。移动平均线群位于上方，因此接下来的交易日对于判断买方能否重新掌控局面，还是卖方会在阻力位附近继续施压至关重要。
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 61 小时
本月在线: 30 分钟
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这ETF资金流入看着确实稳，不知道这次比特币能稳住反弹不 |
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13677 小时
本月在线: 3 小时
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 100 小时
本月在线: 15 分钟
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这波资金流稳得像老中医把脉，均线附近晃悠，别急，等它自己找平衡 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 72 小时
本月在线: 1 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 225 小时
本月在线: 45 分钟
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感觉比特币的ETF资金流入有点走高啊，趋势还挺符合历史数据的 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 332 小时
本月在线: 2 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19634 小时
本月在线: 3 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10405 小时
本月在线: 5 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 106 小时
本月在线: 30 分钟
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这波ETF资金稳得住，感觉比特币要开始动了，别急着冲 |
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