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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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& |9 f6 e" C, P- H# j. [其实原文标题不是这样的% l: @, s+ ]# R: q. K& q2 \
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
- H! F8 \) W A& H1 R6 m$ H他希望能和上帝来场赌局。' J9 `' t' e X$ q
2 i4 b G" u+ f% B+ D6 Q 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。+ h, W) N$ s$ X t% X
7 B& ]) R3 M' ^: g0 a 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」/ [+ l+ [$ ]6 `; _( R2 ~# L+ `9 x
; t* {% N5 b* E/ o5 S4 j* n「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 / r1 R0 ?( q6 g# J' N4 J
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。% ~" j U9 w' V7 w' s
* @; D4 ?7 w. ?0 {/ l, Z# W$ D接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，' W/ _( a" o. Y
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
/ O% J: g$ p5 C( K3 {3 A: V8 |# T; V长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ) }/ K9 R% m( G1 _, Q1 Z
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
2 [# W- E6 z& h# j心想赢定了。
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，, q0 r% J) {& d7 o# _! T4 f' ?
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，; Y4 a! Q3 z) E, z5 q
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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* b, r& v! \; D3 T赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?7 j! m" }0 y8 i2 g: J$ F$ d
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：0 X- q9 o& p$ m5 `
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」! D/ C7 i8 o( T5 ~1 ]$ U
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」9 M7 p: k- d. [2 h5 N7 d6 o
「而不是先发生在我身上。」8 @" C' R$ v. z5 N9 x
8 p2 H" K" z% v" T( q7 E 赌徒恍然大悟，
, K5 T9 K$ A* z原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，/ w; t& z4 R0 u i' w' l$ f9 c# |1 y
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！& Q7 n i$ u: G3 A9 E# G9 n' l. \2 P
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」0 z: H; J0 u1 t4 h8 \6 Z5 c
上帝说完便不见踪影。 + u9 L, Y9 p. L9 D7 O
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
; X# e1 n# j7 |4 Z6 u8 Z5 ~若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，/ }- k; t8 E& ]) s9 X
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
2 w, K/ M1 a* G; E对赌徒十分有利。1 F- F1 e. {. g
8 l7 y% f$ G2 }* t但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
* I6 L( u" h: k8 R% Q; v+ V在还没掷到1000次之前，
0 l3 w5 ~, ^9 j8 ]仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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$ d* d$ I% t8 g o9 W% |/ k 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，6 w; m( [+ C/ H
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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