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有朋友说今年BTC总是联动美股，除了美国CPI之外，还需要看什么呢？密切关注黄金三剑客：大哥美联储议息，二哥非农数据，小弟CPI。 9 J: |( w/ f8 t4 e
很多人对加息会议和CPI都有了解，非农数据是什么？近几个月每次公布非农数据，BTC都会大幅波动，老狼预计受流动性影响，非农数据会造成5-10%波动，非农数据比CPI要重要的多，非农数据也叫非农业就业数据，是美联储最重视的经济指标，比如2020年3月非农数据大幅降低，说明美国正面临失业潮，吓得美联储直接把信贷拉满，开直升机撒钱，几个月的“放水量”超过去十年，美股大宗联手走高，BTC也从3千美元涨到6万美元。 5 M) ^; ?. [! m0 V* B: n& K
放水带来的负面效果也很恶劣，美国通胀正创历史新高，很多人开始觉得加不起油了，原油价格攀升正传导到方方面面，预计明年实际通胀会达到惊人的30%，想想看今天吃火锅花300元，过两年吃火锅花500元，赚的没有花的多，经济学里把这种现象叫“滞胀”，解决的办法就是加息，但有个问题要是加息刺破泡沫引起金融危机该怎么办？所以关键的指标就在于非农数据，美国只保就业，只要就业人数多都有工作，经济泡沫破裂就再放水，水多了加面，面多了加水，只要非农数据向好，就往死加息，直到CPI回到正轨，按照这个思路来看，非农数据才是真正的前瞻指标。 8 e s* M; u2 d* b' V
这并不是空穴来风，今年以来非农数据连续超出预期，甚至有美国人接受采访说赚不赚钱无所谓，就想上班解解闷。只有3月非农比较差，BTC也仅在3月出现大幅反弹。
$ Y- U% G2 g; }7 Q# @
! {. i$ }; @2 F3 B5 t( |最新非农数据将在7月8日发布，如果非农很差，CPI回落，7月加息就会扑空，届时流动性预期会大增，BTC有望迎来真正的报复性拉升。 7 V' N: ]3 m! U/ s: S$ o! h
) }/ a- i2 y* n4 }BTC：
! N7 Y& k3 z& `7 l: i) h+ `- p# hBTC回踩5日线，伴随量能减弱，进入三角收敛走势，小时线连续插针，确认阻力抛压，上方小顶点降低20848美元是阻力线关键点，只有快速拉升突破20848美元，才能走出新一轮冲高走势，接下来BTC在20848美元触顶回落。
( C* \! l- d" Q8 w阻力位：20848，21302，21677
, b$ [: I2 u* d) z1 m支撑位：20132，19578，19025 " F. v* t/ {! F
& a: i! }2 K0 R. E* NETH： 8 t2 o8 C: |# V# F
伴随三箭爆仓告于段落，ETH进入修复阶段，小时线连续插针，成交量持续减弱，ETH做缩量上冲，需要进一步筑底，上方1145.3美元是箱体关键点，ETH需要放量突破1145.3美元，才能走出补涨走势，接下来ETH在1145.3美元冲高回落。 2 w+ f6 H3 E0 h8 V
阻力位：1145.3，1176.5，1193.5
& w8 p$ l; ]$ k. \. O支撑位：1094.5，1063.2，1044.7
* S. a5 w, a6 q; W
) Q& A4 g! V8 jGMT：
7 E' a5 X) m! @( F) ~ \昨天老狼聊过GMT表现非常强势，低点不断抬高，多头加大撑盘力度，GMT仍处于上冲走势，上方0.8美元是插针关键点，多头量能持续减弱，说明需要进一步筑底，接下来GMT在0.8美元做小双头回落。
: u/ p4 h4 ?) G& Z# a& t阻力位：0.8，0.84，0.9 / m* S% ] R; v/ E7 M( Q
支撑位：0.73，0.68，0.65 + Z' l9 x, d% F. C) ~ R
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DOGE： 7 e. e3 R- Z/ w6 W& k
DOGE连续插针，伴随量能减弱，联动主流币种，进入三角收敛走势，上方0.061美元是插针关键点，只有放量突破站稳0.061美元，才能筑底走强，进入新一轮补涨行情，接下来DOGE在0.061美元冲高回落。
3 l5 q1 f4 f- e* ?) F- W! c阻力位：0.061，0.063，0.066 * c k0 N1 B# I. h+ ?
支撑位：0.058，0.056，0.052 $ W9 @' T C' w0 T& ]
SHIB： ) b O* g# m- |
SHIB小时线连续插针，确认箱体走势，上方0.0000082美元是箱体关键点，参考6月中震荡走势，SHIB需要进一步筑底，接下来SHIB在0.0000082美元插针回落。 7 I, a8 s6 L* h
阻力位：0.0000082，0.0000085，0.0000088
' j: m& W; Y5 z9 q支撑位：0.0000079，0.0000077，0.0000073
8 `. y8 V7 C+ q. O" z+ r; Z距离7月加息和“三剑客指标”公布还有段时间，加上三箭等利空告于段落，市场进入修复期，有朋友问老狼对机构清盘，百年难遇的加息周期有什么看法，老狼觉得无论是大通胀加息也好，还是平台等利空跑路，都是牛熊转换周期的一部分，2020年初叫百年难遇的“大宗灾”，2015年叫百年难遇的英镑脱欧，巴菲特说只要你活的时间足够长，你总能遇上几个“百年难遇”，关键在于当你真的碰到这些黑天鹅的时候，是否能从高点跑出来，再从低点进去呢，是否能克制贪婪，压抑恐惧逆周期操作呢？如果可以的话，看见这类大利空应该会很高兴，终于有机会、有空间去操作了，反而看到当年通过ETF等利好感到不安和恐慌，在外人看来你头脑不大正常，但市场总会给你相应的“礼物”，所以老狼觉得这些都是大好事，是未来牛市的一部分，尽管当前是如此的沮丧。
5 k* d0 n9 d4 c5 J! |来源：金色财经 |
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