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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
0 b% w- W* ^9 Q- i3 A委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自+ _: d8 Y. u8 s/ _; \( N7 |+ m- y
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。$ [' |4 F7 S( b! w3 J# B* j* q
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
; {' h& F( m5 F批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始6 d* V" X5 _/ n/ ?" G
后240天做出裁决。3 B, a5 s( F2 e; E% r
分析师：预料之内会被推迟/ M" T9 X$ S0 f! L
彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也
$ h& ~- r0 |+ e' w& J3 R8 U1 h: Q变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方/ ^% Q6 {. Y+ ^; o
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行7 z, y1 V% l8 ?. U
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
) m$ i& n8 a9 S1 [9 { ^4 u来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
% Y" A2 T- `% e$ C" P讶。1 l/ e% d$ W+ A! M+ b9 ?6 u
事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
$ z5 K$ r) f1 X4 N! q3 @; G$ a环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
3 y+ ~2 \- ?* w- f- h0 T; S功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
+ k" |/ y3 a1 }, l; _三大利好消息酝酿
* J+ Z k9 z; @' F) [6 h, L3 B市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：3 Z; A# R% _# A1 B" W
GBTC负溢价率缩窄
4 c: B2 r7 M# l最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持) ] W% i/ |; b: Q3 N/ j
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可/ n7 s% i+ i& \9 [% @5 ~" H" P
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。0 n. N( F+ R x0 W1 o. N |3 ]' E
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线2 p- _& @* A7 D, r+ G1 d
值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只$ H! q1 {6 z+ J' ]' \
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。
9 j3 I; e6 P, V多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请3 j# H' R$ c" G+ \
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后( j; r- r$ c1 T& R
多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然8 [" P# q v, @, q6 s* a, y9 R* x
知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
9 \, I8 E, [# g$ c: r/ q: z9 X% T( J) K- ]# ]- J
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