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看了半天反而不知道要说什么了,BTC 到了61,000美元,虽然和昨天相比只是涨了一点,但是在信心面已经完全不同了,很可惜没有彭博终端没有办法第一时间看到美国机构投资者的情绪,也没有办法第一时间和大家分享,如果我能昨天就看到贝莱德直接买入了9,114枚 #BTC ,我可能会就和大家说,美国人已经开疯狂的FOMO了。3 O S5 B2 u/ B! D l' ^. q( U! b
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对,在最近24小时内,贝莱德再次增持了超过9,000枚BTC,这个增持量是从1月11日现货ETF上市以来第二大的单日增持,上一次是在2月13日,增持了超过10,000枚BTC。之前我们也聊过,什么样的投资者会在券商处买ETF,除了部分的散户以外,毕竟散户24小时供应5.2亿美元实在的难以想象。: g7 f( c+ P$ s! o% c( i! }
: n! W9 Q# K1 A0 M+ k. ]. R要知道 #Coinbase 在昨天一整体的成交量也就是不到28,800枚BTC(BTCUSD),而且这还是成交量,而贝莱德的 $IBIT 是净买入了9,114枚BTC,实际的成交很有可能会超过1万枚BTC,也就是说,IBIT的真实24小时成交量有可能已经逼近了Coinbase的一半,这是个什么概念?
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我们再说回来,什么样的投资者会在ETF买,除了散户,应该就是各种被限制不能去直接购买加密货币的基金,机构,甚至是主权基金。这些人才是坚定的看多分子。而且对于这些机构来说,和散户相比最大的区别就是他们耐得住性子,并不打算短期赚这么点钱就走,他们的持仓很有可能是以周期为单位,最少,我估计也是要等减半了。9 r% j: F i% S" Y( S
|9 t2 L5 X: o9 O! b6 c6 Z- B" r* E其实还有一个迹象,就是GBTC的抛压,这一次直接降低到了400余枚BTC的样子,要知道Genesis的抛售还没有结束,34,000枚左右的抛压满打满算,即便GBTC每天的抛售都是Genesis的,也还差一半的量,这就意味着,GBTC很有可能不仅仅有抛售,还有买入,只是相对于抛售来说,买入量不够抵消而已,如果按照GBTC应该抛售在2,500枚BTC左右来看,很有可能灰度的买入也将近了2,000枚BTC。
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第一梯队除了贝莱德,富达的表现也不错,仍然有超过2,200枚 #BTC 的净增持,总量应该在明天就能突破10万枚BTC了,这个数据也有 MicroStrategy 持仓的一半了,而且富达的投资者大概了和贝莱德一样,都是机构和高净值投资者为主,而且除了第一梯队以外,木头姐的ARK表现也很亮眼,净增持超过了2,300枚BTC,甚至高于富达。
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$ Q1 q# F" p6 P; w' M而木头姐的ARK和贝莱德以及富达又稍微有些不同,本身应该就是懂的BTC,对BTC有兴趣的加密货币领域的投资者。另外还可以看到最近24小时中只有Valkyrie一家基金没有增持BTC(但也没有减持),其它的或多或少都在增加,这也是美国投资者FOMO的表现。6 i4 v4 D: h- _& j
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总的来说现在FOMO的情绪还是没有退潮,能延续多久并不知道,这种时候可以看空,但做空实在危险太大。当然高杠杆做多也是一种风险。现货才是最安全的选择。
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# V: f5 Q+ f3 z9 ~ #BTC 价格愈发接近历史前高,同时BTC短期持有者MVRV指标时隔2年零4个月后首次突破1.4。
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我们可以回顾下2017年以及2020年币价接近历史前高并且同时该指标突破1.4的类似情况。
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2017年01月04日,币价涨至$1103(接近回到13年历史前高),同时该指标突破1.4;2020年11月18日,币价涨至$18394(接近回到17年历史前高),同时该指标突破1.4;2024年02月28日,币价涨至$62218(接近回到21年历史前高),同时该指标突破1.4。) m0 c( C) D, g P+ H0 C
0 f) E" m* W8 G/ p注:BTC短期持有者MVRV(Market Value to Realized Value)指BTC链上短期持有者持有的BTC的当前总市值跟按这些BTC买入价格计算的成本总市值之比,即BTC短期持有者总体现货价/成本价。
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