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[lastpost] => 2649286 【吉祥坊】5月11日投注流水240840元（单日流水) 1715658105 舞出精彩
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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法：凯利注码法（凯利缆）（转载）
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我，如何控制震荡？要准备多少资金？要下多大的注？要多久能回报？4 q& b+ G: r, {5 v' C. p
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会问我这些问题，表示功力不到家！只会算EV确不会管理资金，只知其然却不知其所以然。
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+ T F, e4 P" K5 y- B' h- g* A其实优势玩家的资金管理，不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学！！！% o, y3 C# X8 q, O1 E% J1 V; f
* e' P2 E1 s+ I- ~首先，我问一个很简单的问题，有什么注码法，能让你就算一直输，也永远不会破产？9 D$ n" k* D/ G- y
# J9 \ m2 h/ r" p/ s请思考1分钟，再来看下面的答案。
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5 F$ F# l2 I8 @8 t2 D0 l2 `! q答案就是用比例下注，就永远不会破产！) E/ C O5 u" ^+ S/ i3 |! h
$ r1 Q: K5 m; K; h3 G例如：我每次都下我总资金的10%，如果输了，我就下剩下的90%的10%，那么不管我输多少次，我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%，永远都还会剩下钱。
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+ o8 O1 P- T5 `* n现在的问题就是，到底要下总资本的百分之几最好？* t4 z; ]: B/ M: z
: c$ |$ b% P0 m" K8 S% ~+ b: _我们先来看一个0和的游戏。: r: W3 t4 [( E' p: x0 o$ S- ]
. {) s& Q3 \3 l. O$ A2 h f玩2手，输一次赢一次，我用10%下注，不管先输（剩下90%，再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%）再赢（90%+9%），还是先赢（剩下110%，再下110%的10%=11%）再输（110%-11%）,都是剩下99%，公式是（1+10%）*（1-10%）=99% 损失了1%的本金！
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- G/ F+ b6 F! g玩200手，输100次赢100次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^100 * (1-10%）^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金！玩越多手，输的越多。
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5 P! j/ [; Y4 x( _0 x/ u这个实验说明，使用永远不会破产的注码，虽然永远也输不完，但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏，也会一直越输越多。- P; |3 w/ b8 c5 X/ Q1 G1 A
: m4 W; s c1 O( O( A, F) @接下来，大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏，赢的会比输的多，+1%的游戏，就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思，那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打，会不会赚钱呢？
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玩200手，输99次赢101次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^101 * (1-10%）^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点，但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%，（1+5%）^101 * (1-5%）^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。' U: A8 q2 j3 H. ]
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如果下1%呢？（1+1%）^101 * (1-1%）^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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/ t" D( m% x0 H* F T但是这真的是最好的吗？我帮大家节省时间，我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果，用表格的形式拉出来。; L! v+ x1 v0 p6 _$ U4 r' R
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下注比例 本金结果; q" ?* a# o% u7 ?- F
$ c% ^" x ~6 S9 B( v
0.1% 1.001902
; e% }$ f! X6 X2 p5 S, F! u( h3 b5 K; E- O' o) X4 _
0.2% 1.003606
1 d1 Q9 z" F) |1 u1 { G9 {: F7 O& G' S9 |* K
0.3% 1.0051131 v6 J5 G0 s, q* W
0 m0 g( [3 s" {& z5 t) p7 D3 S7 e0.4% 1.006421
2 Q2 t. n1 c% u/ C7 t$ }8 @& Y. A2 B* M. Z% L' `
0.5% 1.007528
+ l Q8 k4 Z3 {6 J( ] f; z3 i" }. e% k" D( V' r; ?% f
0.6% 1.008435! P5 P3 k- P* c( K
1 J+ B& p: h; @8 s" @6 r
0.7% 1.009142
6 _, a, w& Y2 G6 g: h# ^
: q4 h' o) m9 c9 [* P8 O1 M0.8% 1.009646
2 G# N; T. ^5 \% _+ w# }# b8 p+ |8 x) M R/ K6 _. _+ ?& q
0.9% 1.009949
5 H% N: ?! Y- u. Q7 ^* I
6 @0 w, u$ X' z& w/ E1.0% 1.01005
1 f* p* Q' W% u) K5 e3 f6 U5 ^
7 v- c5 U5 H% d0 K+ o8 ?1.1% 1.009949- o6 I/ \- \! G' ` P0 u
, C( |4 g) ^# n5 \1.2% 1.009646. M/ T9 z, }2 C4 J% v: V
- U9 \9 A- A9 C; q1.3% 1.009142 u/ _# M1 b6 E1 x& d
4 k2 g: ?& p; N( S- T$ H/ s
1.4% 1.008435
3 R; |2 H" s, C8 n2 X
/ L. a- i$ n# r- a1.5% 1.0075283 D* W1 {0 q4 h% @
# D8 v+ Q: G$ `- E+ {1.6% 1.006428 G( g! P, U# @( g7 |! l/ I
! R5 c2 ^; k4 F/ s! l
1.7% 1.0051123 E' H# F, h; L$ f$ P
3 e5 k+ R$ T7 I2 d
1.8% 1.003605
( B4 r8 m! J7 H6 u5 A1 Z
9 m/ d9 f ^5 m1.9% 1.00195 B& m0 Y1 L. E6 R, U
* p- ?( F, e$ M; U4 o
2.0% 0.9999976 @ a D+ b# ~% c4 \8 c
1 F. F) e& h! [+ B9 y* T8 h7 a
2.1% 0.9978990 T. }$ a: }! a. I2 J
$ P& r6 m* J' k2.2% 0.9956051 M" r8 p" C" O" I0 r' f( ^* X
& j1 t/ t/ D3 l2.3% 0.993118
+ m+ m- ~) K, N9 t% f2 a/ @% v" ]4 C& P) o( }9 r# y1 l
2.4% 0.990439% v! N( z1 E- X$ W; K
: s K, ^% s6 K. k6 [7 a( x% ^/ Q
2.5% 0.987569
# b3 `) N c! f p! k! z! j6 {9 b- p( B
2.6% 0.984511 i4 U" B8 W7 I! a
2 m9 i9 u0 ~2 H0 _/ p; f7 Q2.7% 0.981264
7 }! `6 ~* C2 g1 C: H$ t. U; Q$ s/ r" d2 E; f" V' J8 \
2.8% 0.977833
' }* n! _% Z% ~
: i3 F: W* K4 V9 h; k/ U- x* I2.9% 0.9742198 X! A R1 A+ P$ R3 c- e
$ f$ u" D7 x j- U) q$ z) R3.0% 0.9704242 e# v P+ J2 ]( ~# H$ \
' D9 o' [( u0 f5 K+ c从上表可以得到一些结论：
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，下注在0%以上2%以下，才会有获利& c8 w `& C# ]# H
$ t/ U; ]- ^% B6 N5 g7 q) g2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，注码在1%的时候，得到的获利是最高的，下的越小赚的越少，下的越大也赚的越少！
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金，严格按照比例下注，过多过少只要不够准确，都会降低收益，名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人，其实只是按照这个原理去推演，发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...! d4 O' ^6 g8 D7 W
% F/ r3 b. y+ k9 m然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件，其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同，其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的，但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表，那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上，希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。3 f; l4 d# e% Y& s9 c: {1 H
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