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当前离线
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天策币:
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总在线: 12049 小时
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?; }( n4 V* U# n o* ]3 g9 c. W
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w5 {$ o" X* _8 N ~+ F6 E9 F
- ^5 x* k9 Q5 h# _ 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来" c2 l- T9 ~- Y3 D2 _( L& g! t1 d, Q& }# Y
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上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
* v2 l& Q; h1 U) d2 \9 @( i+ B1 l" B3 y U& }2 h
特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。
2 n& y! m7 a: c2 h9 f1 m% v5 d* u6 J' o- m$ z
此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
' l y$ H% T) R V! C2 h8 l% U- U: z7 w" d7 R" Z: K
虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘& K% d! z9 I0 b% ]8 `$ t
. I! C, f% c0 v7 F+ n8 |4 v% t* I2 J整,最终突破向上。
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我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。
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最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前
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比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。
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根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需- L% r9 O3 W# l6 J
/ l! N. y- I2 p7 b2 w5 n' z) ^要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作 Y3 W6 [/ ` R$ l' F6 l
3 N* f a4 V* c; B# j& n0 u出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
9 _7 ~6 A( p) ~9 h" b1 n2 b4 E" f6 ^5 K! R5 {2 \7 w7 ?
综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自4 v! k. O; M* p/ }4 m
3 K. q A3 F% m/ F& z% A B然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。' G0 m# n5 c7 a( `. I
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12081 小时
本月在线: 5 小时
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2115 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3388 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 793 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 9366 小时
本月在线: 16 小时
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