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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
3 U* l8 r; q0 J0 X X4 v8 K' B+ P) h2 K$ Y' H/ }! o# |* Y! f5 \
许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
/ W! u8 x- H" p& C
2 [5 N1 x9 K) G9 S0 }# R格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速7 v8 m, Z$ j6 p+ ?3 J8 L- m0 f3 T$ E
\7 R! F9 X" {. J5 V猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?6 O& M9 i; c) v' s8 t3 v6 [
% L1 D+ U+ W, Y7 ]' Z7 _对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。0 E1 x6 ]6 [5 i6 Q! u/ u3 [
F# E) @6 e- {) T1 I这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。; B0 ]7 b/ b, o* V3 Z( y
9 K0 l/ J# k( N% E比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯7 |' m3 ?" z* t# D1 o
8 x5 x' p! E& l% e Y, [狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
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, h% l$ Z! [3 q# u5 _( j黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。, I, `( R( S; r4 I) y
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当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉! b+ B' |& K) P
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升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超2 v/ `; I# M1 c* f+ g( l
7 z8 l: @9 w6 i) C8 L2 |9 k5 r" H
高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
; |9 w1 V1 ?: s; M+ z2 \% G2 [5 `7 W/ Z
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置9 [: u3 ?" N5 e0 \7 Q: o
5 U/ f% h' d6 ~& h9 p) F/ Y于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资0 q0 B1 Y* Y! p5 Z
7 U% b: r7 H6 Y3 o产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
: I% v) T! f: Z- m f' [2 m+ Y' N
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
, i4 h! l5 }& z1 ?( x
/ A7 B+ Q" y% w; |之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之* P8 N) |, ^3 _
# w9 K% h) x1 C* T
于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。: N- ~ o) t8 b( P% {9 ^
' X" w+ a% k3 ?: ?' t2 o+ n4 U, b
而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加% u* J$ {, T( J }. V# `
' V5 h' O9 P; l速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
/ Z$ U2 O( ?$ I* d3 Q' t* W, N- J: }! w+ K: V' m9 P# o r# j
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
! `8 |6 `& G! O% b: }
1 a8 S% j( M) V* T/ B: O( ^全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
) B( M1 g: K1 N0 T+ M& g6 v
) r; }& m- A7 w要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。' K& |$ T4 s) j9 C' I9 g5 i
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