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[lastpost] => 2813889 Solana 市值超越以太坊，跻身万亿美元市场，新的王者即将诞生？（转） 1773269384 whywhy
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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* Q1 X7 }* R e* b, `' e& e9 q瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心3 ^5 \, h- D' A2 W/ s. r
4 s# \6 \$ R0 x: D8 C! A. u( P衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
; J; Y( c1 R# a* S1 B" B& J' ]3 }美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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3 w- L! D& E. e* |, \融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。; P4 o- M$ S3 h& G: j
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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! r/ f% z9 X5 Q% B, |8 h率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。2 X$ ~4 y$ [# M
2 w- T: `" s1 L. f4 q. h6 `; I3 p4 k然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国 q, N& u% K" v
e* ?/ K" g; G% I0 V长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更 ]6 D+ V- g2 K: H
v5 b+ n4 N6 ~是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史7 Z& r) K4 c1 W3 }' o
5 Y7 B% j3 `2 D9 U o( Q标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：# w* e8 w! z' d" J* S+ s1 }
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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; g* T* ?6 d% p8 ? X& K% J周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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1 O& v" J0 a9 Z1 J, v周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债7 G7 W" I& }7 U, @
# O' R3 O W: k收益率冲高回落。8 \/ w6 G4 K& y, A! g `6 D
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。8 E! e7 |* @' z
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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3 f5 n$ @9 C$ o0 t1 Z是的，这正是我们所看到的。"; V$ u- i: Y$ E
7 y" d$ z# P! Q' ?根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去# Q6 ]6 i( q% [/ A; D. a
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。6 T4 y# X& m; H
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+ {) ]. ]& M3 p; ^; s; x
Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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