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[lastpost] => 2812048 散户0.61极度恐高！巨鲸1.45倍重仓逼空，深度揭秘bard为何暴涨（转） 1773201549 德罗星
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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s6 E- s( m3 p2 F p+ p% Q# ^' m8 w瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心1 d' ] s3 x7 J" }& r$ P) Q
" W0 |8 a4 M( @# I+ X# W! T衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”# I* w+ i1 P: a, X
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。2 f" }- L3 V4 o% z; A
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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* h) C/ _6 l8 Y+ I P M) u长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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% Y! d" N# f4 q# X+ q# E# I3 t历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币" b* a3 R! N' x$ M0 {0 S1 p/ [
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史& [/ d9 `4 U2 T* w
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：. u# ^6 T8 f: x2 G3 ~2 ?8 B7 m }: ^
A$ E0 Z3 i+ @$ |% g7 I+ o2 ?: r周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。2 c( |2 T0 O% e* \' ?
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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! p7 X3 k6 q' ]& y周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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( Z2 Y8 y$ {; U [收益率冲高回落。
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7 g& E6 j5 p* K2 E' h; u周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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2 w; @' f' N6 e1 W. g2 pLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，7 m6 N, Z! b% i! y& ?
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。". N% X/ c8 A3 q9 l
! A; u6 F, r% `- w- Q根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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: R. D5 }( d- n/ X. I2 f b) _年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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O1 |/ F9 {" f: E6 @% NRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。", @2 J! w! b4 z8 n; N( G
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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