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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。
3 ]! ]* L2 H1 `RSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。1 U4 v2 g0 R: H; l7 S) V5 j; L. B
比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。
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接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。
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. J4 o! N: o B% U% h/ n链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。, x) f2 f$ c/ q9 R o3 E
) s& Q9 d5 x. ?* X a4 I7 }随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？) h* K6 z# ^4 `% E N
* H. x5 v A# f2 ~* \7 X- }市场信心[激增]？
x* r9 _; v# R" i8 s% W根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。
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2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。
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随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。
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超级持有者已暂停# z) h3 y$ _2 q1 W
尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。
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; w" y* d) k4 F& @. i8 h根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。" e1 b3 R$ D- j& W
3 U0 @! M& @* H5 z3 N6 N相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。! h( i, {, A' `: G$ B/ b7 h% H! R3 c
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即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。
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尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。; ?7 }. ~4 K/ |6 k$ G3 h: G
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比特币显示出疲软迹象! F8 \! b. y# R6 C) `; r3 g
RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。
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此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。3 t, v& x. F4 V3 }2 J. c' c1 D
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尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。; Y7 ~2 E1 H+ Q3 f# ?* T& v
0 Q# K' x, E0 G |+ R如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。
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