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[虚拟币交流]
鲸鱼抛售 4.38 亿美元比特币——BTC 为何现在处于十字路口（转）
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已经过去两周多了比特币[BTC]开始下跌，市值下跌了13%。目前，它继续保持看跌趋势。7 }2 i6 E8 f0 B: B
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根据其价格走势和近期鲸鱼活动，该资产似乎可能在未来几天延续其下跌趋势。* ]6 _+ P! l( R! I( p b
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交易量上升
G0 a1 F. f+ K( _3 @截至发稿时，BTC 徘徊在 108,500 美元附近，过去 24 小时内下跌了 1.65%。
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尽管价格持续下跌，但投资者和交易者的参与度持续增加，导致交易量激增 15%。# t' s* E2 E$ Q- @
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价格下跌期间交易量的增加预示着该资产具有强劲的下行势头。+ |, ]9 ^% T- J" A; R! d
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鲸鱼抛售价值 4.38 亿美元的 BTC，是时候出售了吗？
, `" Y1 @. x- @# k8 月 30 日，基于区块链的交易追踪器Lookonchain发现一名巨鲸在 12 小时内通过两笔交易（每笔 2,000 BTC）抛售了价值 4.38 亿美元的 4,000 BTC。2 n" T8 y& T7 C: t2 S0 J* U
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这并不是这名鲸鱼唯一参与的活动。X 上的帖子还透露，在过去 24 小时内，这名鲸鱼一直在抛售 BTC 持有量，以换取 ETH。
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1 j- e+ l; `% y' Q) o根据最近的数据，这位鲸鱼已经购买了价值 2.19 亿美元的 49,850 枚 ETH，并继续在现货市场上增持 ETH。到目前为止，这位加密货币鲸鱼已经增持了 691,358 枚 ETH，价值 30 亿美元。1 J+ T, K+ j6 C
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BTC 抛售和 ETH 积累背后的潜在原因尚不清楚，但看起来鲸鱼正在遵循当前的趋势。/ ]$ x- b6 G; J9 i6 M
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机构的比特币需求
. e+ a2 h- }0 l1 C; q看到这种抛售，您可能会考虑出售 BTC 持有量，因为相信会有进一步的下行势头。
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, n6 |+ h1 ?; Q/ ~- B2 T5 Y- s但是，最近，资产管理公司 Bitwise 分享了一份报告，显示随着全球兴趣的不断增长，比特币的需求正在显著上升。: G4 j5 _! B0 |1 { f' d0 D, H
/ ?0 U8 }- ]2 O/ X9 M自2025年初以来，机构已购买了690,710个BTC，而矿工仅开采了109,072个BTC。这表明机构对比特币的需求是供应量的六倍。& b/ B4 k6 Q; w9 U! w& @' Y+ X/ p& w
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将鲸鱼活动与 Bitwise 报告结合起来，似乎比特币可能处于短期下行趋势，但长期前景仍然看涨。% P2 e, m( f x
& R' ]5 S* o7 T# |! Z数据进一步显示，2024年，机构购买了913,006枚BTC，而实际开采量仅为217,771枚。当年，BTC价格飙升超过150%，这解释了其长期强劲的趋势。, U/ Q$ \4 U/ K' R7 j
) s9 x; x& K$ M/ ?0 a) C# t比特币：值得关注的关键水平- K' x: V" Z' `
AMBCrypto 的技术分析显示，BTC 在日线图上已失去 110,000 美元的关键支撑位。日线收盘价也低于该水平，表明可能正在为进一步的下行势头做准备。! @& o" w( s" z' K, A
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不过，另一个支撑位在 107,490 美元，这仍然可以阻止 BTC 价格进一步下跌。
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% d) Y1 S8 A; _" q. }$ m* U0 l: g根据近期价格走势和历史模式，如果下行势头持续，且价格未能守住该局部支撑位，则可能再次下跌 7.5%。
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" i/ v7 f1 A; E& a* C如果发生这种情况，BTC 的价格可能会跌至 100,000 美元大关。2 |+ j1 {: E0 p6 g: }
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截至发稿时，技术指标 Supertrend 已转为红色，并高于 BTC 价格。这表明比特币正处于下行趋势中，且下行势头强劲。9 I: p& \) [* {% `, h
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然而，该资产的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 为 38，这暗示市场情绪看跌，并且 BTC 正接近超卖区域。6 w! ^9 [3 [. }5 U: d# a
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BTC主要清算水平0 g9 x8 G; i" K
鉴于当前的市场情绪，交易员似乎正在追随更广泛的趋势。5 @7 y! ]2 F" C0 X2 b z
. Q5 O( u5 Q7 a: s! \根据链上分析公司 CoinGlass 的数据，BTC 的主要清算水平下方为 107,261 美元，上方为 109,592 美元。
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这些不仅仅是关键水平，因为这些点位的交易员过度杠杆化，持有价值 6.64 亿美元的多头头寸和价值 10.6 亿美元的空头头寸。" k# {5 ^+ e# P. x8 ?$ ?3 f
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因此，空头目前主导着该资产，跌破 107,261 美元的水平可能会引发急剧下跌。
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