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[虚拟币交流]
比特币（BTC）或将在周三突破12万美元——原因解析（转）
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比特币（BTC）价格的上涨动力主要来自中心化交易所提现、现货ETF资金流入，以及其金融对冲工具作用的增强。图片来源于网络7 B5 n2 P1 T. E2 K8 _* ?# w
关键要点：; k0 T g: q7 U0 E2 A
9月共净提现4.4万枚比特币（BTC），减少了流通供应，缓解了短期抛压。5 G8 H7 N4 t, W$ W, e- h
美国上市现货比特币ETF新增资金22亿美元，持续的每日需求远超新挖供应量。
2 W1 H6 Q$ _% ?0 k自周五以来，比特币（BTC）一直在2.3%的窄幅区间内波动，投资者则在观望美联储将于周三公布的利率决议。尽管降息对比特币（BTC）的即时影响尚不明朗，但有三项独立因素正推动比特币（BTC）价格进一步上涨。' N2 `# A& D8 _# e7 Z# A0 ?/ A
估计：交易所地址持有的比特币总量，BTC。来源：Glassnode
* g5 ]/ n2 q: R$ @+ O交易所持有的比特币数量大幅下降，直接影响了短期价格走势。据Glassnode数据显示，仅9月就有4.4万枚比特币（BTC）净提现，逆转了7月的高存入趋势。可用币数量减少导致即时流动性收紧，从而限制了当前11.6万美元价位的短期抛压。( }5 T3 K+ P3 R
BTC供应减少，现货比特币ETF需求增长
. ~; w% S5 S& X- Y- [部分观点认为，交易所内仍有296万枚比特币（BTC），可以吸收买入需求压力。但这一看法忽略了相当一部分币并未挂单卖出。许多客户出于自主管理风险的考虑，或为了获取收益、享受更低手续费等，将比特币（BTC）存放在交易所。
) q0 s7 g# X0 X8 g* O# D# C7 l: I美国上市的比特币ETF每日净流量，美元。来源：CoinGlass
! X; q) z' F3 _* I- k现货比特币ETF的持续流入为11.5万美元价位提供了更强支撑。自8月以来黄金表现超越比特币（BTC）11%后，这一趋势提振了投资者信心。美国上市比特币ETF在周三至周一期间录得22亿美元净流入，每日买入需求远超新挖比特币数量的十倍以上。8 y; ], r- P. r3 }+ C$ y- I# ^
Eric Trump在周二接受CNBC采访时强调了比特币（BTC）的独特属性。美国总统特朗普之子作为美国比特币（ABTC）矿业与金库管理公司联合创始人，个人也持有投资。Eric Trump称，比特币（BTC）是“我们这个时代最伟大的资产”，认为它是现代版黄金，并能够有效对冲房地产板块的疲软。4 x! m5 H5 L( X. `1 ]
比特币可能不会对美联储降息作出反应
: g( c9 P4 M2 H* u3 f }" H: H债券市场当前预计，美联储将利率从4.5%下调至4.25%的概率高达96%。这意味着比特币（BTC）对周三利率决议的反应可能较为有限。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的发言将更具指引意义，决定未来利率是否持续下调。如果通胀风险依然存在，比特币（BTC）冲击12万美元的走势或将受阻。
# }4 ~. m. S' ?, R; W美联储确保了隔夜融资利率。来源：彭博社 / Cointelegraph5 q/ D, d5 k0 j$ s, q# ?% m( a: M
本周还出现了新的金融信号，预示市场压力加剧。周一，美国银行通过美联储常设回购便利借入15亿美元，据路透社表示，这反映了“满足资金义务的紧张”。隔夜拆借利率在周五升至4.42%，为两个月来最高水平。
) B" N- L6 T3 |0 H0 |不确定性推动黄金价格飙升，周二创下历史新高。无论美联储利率决策如何，比特币（BTC）有望在现货ETF、企业储备策略和其独立对冲作用的持续需求推动下突破12万美元，而Eric Trump的相关表态进一步强化了这一优势。+ A/ u& m1 \/ U8 _ c& b* G' a
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