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[lastpost] => 2771066 贝莱德比特币现货ETF跻身美国前 20 大ETF 分析师料最快明年圣诞打入十大-转 1759508583 NBA专家
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能飙升至 165,000 美元，因与黄金的比较引发人们的兴趣（转）
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比特币ETF流入表明投资者信心增强
" b- X) z6 G& V- y$ L黄金依然强劲，但可能会吸引投资者转向比特币
, g' r, d4 K) S- N- K根据趋势预测，比特币理论价值将达到 165000
$ @8 k' g7 B1 F8 g与黄金相比，比特币有望达到 165,000 美元2 Q$ q5 P: P1 [7 z$ O4 l( V5 }+ ?3 v
根据摩根大通的一份报告，比特币相对于黄金而言被严重低估，这意味着到 2025 年底其潜在价值将增长至 165,000 美元。9 C, t% H# ]: n i
. k3 L. H. t B4 _# ^; RETF资本流入凸显投资者兴趣日益增长 u- d- D3 b, L% G# u2 W
摩根大通指出，近几个月流入黄金和比特币ETF的资金激增。市场数据也印证了这一趋势。
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3 O v. p& ~1 P* b( N2 Q& Y1. 自2025年8月底以来，黄金ETF每周净流入量在18亿美元至42亿美元之间+ ]6 d7 m+ z% X; O) U" q6 T
0 I# y3 r1 b1 d+ E* S黄金ETF净资本流入。数据来源：世界黄金协会7 L" R* E, J4 w4 e
2.2025年9月，黄金ETF流入资金约136亿美元。同期，现货比特币ETF净流入35.3亿美元。4 x) l! B# g8 ?7 ]8 ]$ u! M* D! X
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现货比特币ETF的净资本流入。来源：SoSoValue
0 e% R% E6 \7 k) Q, m" n$ v m这一活动表明，比特币相对于黄金的价值可能被低估。摩根大通报告称，比特币相对于黄金的波动率指数已跌破2，这意味着比特币吸引的风险资本可能几乎是黄金的两倍。
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' q' f2 L( v a5 F" P理论估值与市场相关性
( e3 G! V) ^4 C! M/ e考虑到这一点，比特币的市值需要增长42%才能与60亿美元的私人黄金投资相匹配，这意味着理论上的估值为16.5万美元。然而，报告指出，到2024年底，比特币的估值被高估了。
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两种资产在短期（30天）和长期（365天）内保持相关性，而90天移动平均线仍显示负相关性。
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比特币与黄金的相关性。来源：Glassnode" `1 Y$ _. ?2 s
图表显示，自2025年8月中旬以来，黄金的表现一直优于比特币。在市场波动之前，黄金创下了历史新高，而比特币则短暂下跌。摩根大通强调，随着比特币的复苏，黄金的投资吸引力下降，这增加了对全球首个加密货币的需求。
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