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[lastpost] => 2786438 加密矿企 Bitfury 拟对去中心化 AI 计算网络 Gonka 投资 5000 万美元 1764762429 比推快讯
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QCP：比特币暂稳，未来美联储领导层更替将成焦点
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比推消息，QCP 发布每日市场观察称，继周一的剧烈波动后，市场进入观望状态，表面平稳，但远未放松。比特币在从 86,000 美元低点反弹 5% 后，静静盘整在 9 万中位数附近；同时，股票和外汇市场在数据稀少但政治影响浓厚的下周 FOMC 会议前保持漂浮。表面平静之下，市场显然在为下一轮催化因素做准备。美联储领导层成为焦点下一轮市场催化因素越来越可能来自美联储，尤其是其新领导人。押注市场迅速变化，显示 Kevin Hassett 担任下一任美联储主席的概率约为 85%，特朗普预计将在明年初正式确认。此时领导层过渡正值货币政策脆弱阶段，引发市场对新领导层可能如何影响美联储反应机制的疑问。
Miran 将于 2026 年 1 月离职Bostic 将于 2 月离职Powell 将于 5 月卸任这一系列变动可能使 FOMC 倾向于比市场习惯更鸽派的立场。
下周 FOMC：信息有限，风险高企
即将召开的 FOMC 会议增添了新的变数。会议期间将无新的 CPI 或 NFP 数据，使政策制定者的可见性远低于常规水平。即便如此，期货市场已将下周 25 个基点的保险性降息概率定价为 90%。市场关注点正从单纯的通胀数据转向治理、政策倾向及机构方向。加密市场：暂时缓解，但问题未解
周末的一大焦虑源暂时得到缓解。Strategy 通过发行股票筹集约 14 亿美元，将运营资金延长至约 21 个月，同时将 mNAV 提升至约 1.14。管理层重申，只有当 mNAV 低于 1.0 时才会出售 BTC。短期市场情绪因此稳定，但结构性压力仍令市场保持警觉。下一个关键风险事件是 MSCI 指数成分资格审查（1 月 15 日），仍可能引发 Strategy 相关资金流动的重大波动。当前状态
目前，加密资产保持相对稳定，但属于紧张型稳定，等待更多明确信号。在宏观催化因素有限、且美联储领导层不确定性上升的情况下，数字资产实际上处于暂停状态，直至政策制定者释放下一条明确指引。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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