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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2734 小时
本月在线: 69 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。/ O! R0 ~/ I/ A, t
4 }% e0 x! ]8 L$ U+ u市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。6 f+ E# g U; V7 |( u; g' j
一、先说技术面
2 \1 z4 T. U# I$ V7 i; z9 E这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！
; G2 T7 ]3 |% s$ X7 I2 m而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！+ a7 ?2 G- d, {4 p
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2 T/ @2 ? d6 h二、再看宏观4 C) h" q' p* `4 w+ @8 s
以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。4 A4 k$ D- u* c3 m
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6 [, ]( B3 [, q) `! V) o5 U2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。
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" X' K+ X1 w2 t8 VETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！$ H% Q- X: z4 [ e$ e2 O6 d8 C
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- P% ?+ i2 F/ U* e交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜5 f% w2 C4 {0 W- `& d
三、机构在买，而不是跑) v) y' T, A9 {
散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。
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; c' P/ c* `( i9 u1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
& m! B. U6 ~& {近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。
+ l( u/ g% a9 b0 V" j+ m) b四、2026 年路线图聚焦. o- q) f2 W# |* D6 l2 G; B
升级方向包括：5 \1 S8 p4 S F! v; b& r5 ~
提升 Gas 上限
* Z, h, \0 E% j" j" O6 J- w& A7 w
% T( Z, r) p2 v# ~3 P: ?增强 L2 互操作性
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# E6 o/ p" j. l9 h! G扩展零知识基础设施; N+ k* z* ]% N. P; a Z
' j7 \8 a% y. D/ v账户抽象
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0 {) a* Q2 g( y! C9 R抗量子安全
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$ s( Q8 ^) b1 l6 T# w! \( J# p& GHarden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”" L" J' ? l* z) a! S6 _
: r. X# m3 z8 \所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。
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( ~+ m! M C$ P9 i6 ]6 k4 ?这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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