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赛前分析:[欧国杯]芬兰 vs 荷兰
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北京时间本周三(09月07日)凌晨01点00分，欧洲杯预选赛E组将进行一场比赛，小组第一的荷兰做客对阵已经出线无望的芬兰。/ T# r& e, S. C/ }1 b
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欧赔
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$ k. a" d: w; w' X' g2 `" d澳门：8.50 5.00 1.25% n5 D) H4 c3 K1 j* f
1 b/ E) P2 ]8 x2 d1 @0 N立博：10.00 5.50 1.28
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bet365：9.00 5.00 1.33
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6 Y* _% `% Z E2 ^7 J' Y1 R8 _除了bet365、易胜博等公司的荷兰胜赔和威廉相差过大外，欧赔看起来还是比较正常的。现在bet365和易胜博荷兰胜赔都是1.33，而威廉只有1.22，两者相差了0.11。这本来就是个不小的差距，本场荷兰胜赔本来就非常低，更放大了这一差距，如果保持这样的赔率到终场，荷兰是有危险的。4 p; ^ u& h9 A' z
; i4 b! C! L$ Z亚盘' T5 b% s7 ~7 x8 j+ U
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澳门：0.98 -1/-1.5 0.84
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立博：1.02 -1/-1.5 0.84' b: e6 x: a( J/ y& X+ }. }% k6 O2 k
4 c( W2 H; m1 S5 ~7 J$ o' w6 nbet365：1.025 -1/-1.5 0.825- g. {4 J" o' p0 D; z
# b2 {& m. O! w2 J7 F0 U! n亚盘初盘都是荷兰让球半，而现在都是荷兰让一球/球半，各公司都退了盘。这场荷兰必然是热门，退盘如果上盘保持低水还能理解为是减少上盘赔付，但退盘后上盘还升了水，这就不能理解了。以现在的盘口来看，荷兰最好的情况就是赢球输盘。
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对战记录
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两队在历史上交战过12次，芬兰队1胜2平9负处于绝对下风，进14球失32球；其中两队在欧洲杯预选赛中交战过5场，芬兰队1平4负未有胜绩处于劣势，进4球失12球。首回合交锋，荷兰主场仅2-1小胜。9 w2 F% M% Z& A- ?
; C# z# R) v! G3 [- r' p0 z* v出线形势% I7 Z4 R/ w3 v! T1 X
" n7 Q& i! ~$ [7 y荷兰全胜21分遥遥领先，瑞典、匈牙利同积15分瑞典比匈牙利少赛一场，9分的芬兰、6分的摩尔多瓦和0分的圣马力诺是打酱油。 d8 G) W% P3 F: B; m9 p4 ]3 G' s
) Y9 e9 `- W5 a由于瑞典本轮是打圣马力诺3分在握，因为荷兰本轮赢球也还是领先第二名6分，在都还剩下2场的情况下理论上荷兰还没有出线，不过这也只是理论上。匈牙利尽管和瑞典同分，但形势不妙，不仅比瑞典多赛一场且对战胜负处于劣势，这要求他们必须积分超过瑞典才行，还好和荷兰的比赛已经踢完。瑞典剩下的对手是圣马力诺、芬兰和荷兰，匈牙利想要出线，就要期待瑞典在对芬兰、荷兰时都不胜。$ P+ T. I2 r! b; N
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上周末比赛简介
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荷兰上周末11-0大胜圣马力诺，这场胜利被大加赞赏，但个人认为这不算什么，荷兰大比分赢下圣马力诺，不能说明状态有多好只能说明态度比较认真，要知道同组的瑞典打圣马力诺，在34分钟被罚下一人10打11还是能6-0大胜。圣马力诺和荷兰的差距实在是太大了。" @) g T# P1 ]/ |/ t
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芬兰上周末4-1击败摩尔多瓦，哈伊莱宁梅开二度，福赛尔打入点球，对方再送了一个乌龙。芬兰小组赛的9分全都是在圣马力诺和摩尔多瓦两支鱼腩身上取得，碰到其他对手就是输球。8 `. }" y9 s" i' X
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胜负关键
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) p1 i/ b$ s4 z9 J$ U1 o, m0 _, [对荷兰大部分球员来说，取得小组第一不成问题、且周末还有联赛的情况下，不分点心是不可能的，这在主观上给芬兰制造了一些爆冷的机会。& l4 _! w! h8 i3 M% S8 [+ g
: C* ^7 j( N9 m5 p% V1 _. y9 {$ e从人员上来说，荷兰缺少有伤的罗本、范德法特和德容，并不能以最强阵容出击，上周末对圣马力诺排出的三叉戟是库伊特、亨特拉尔和范佩西，库伊特是另类边锋勤恳有余但灵性不足、亨特拉尔是标准的射手需要队友喂球，而范佩西技术能力出色但踢球风格比较独，这个三叉戟的攻击力对圣马力诺是很强，但并不能用这场来判断，碰到职业化的芬兰，能表现出什么样的水准这就是未知数了。 |
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