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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再度失守3万大关！美国就业远超预期刺激Fed加息（转载）
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虽然近期加密货币市场有所回暖，但美国整体经济指标却似乎仍未有放松货币紧缩政策的征兆。联准会主席鲍威尔也在六月底刚举办的欧洲中央银行论坛上，再次表明「坚守货币紧缩政策」的立场。0 r4 C3 J; i2 V" Z9 L# A9 r
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而昨(6)日晚间，联准会官员针对6月的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要作出评论，明显表达出与鲍威尔相似的货币紧缩立场。; R& l5 e5 n$ C
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联准会官员：当前经济形势强劲，暗示还有两次升息- b* s" n9 J' ]; C% A
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据路透社报道，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长Lorie Logan在昨(6)晚举办的纽约中央银行研究协会年会上强调，当前经济依然很强势，需要进一步的升息来降温：FOMC必须贯彻我们6月发出的信号。(当时)三分之二的参会人员预计至少还有两次升息。6 N) K& P3 y: k( `
: C* `8 k! j" ^" l, T3 o) F8 |而采取升息则是出于对通膨下降不明显的忧虑，且当前的劳动力市场等指标放缓速度不达预期：我仍然非常担心通膨率是否会以可持续的方式及时回到目标值。通膨持续高于目标值、强于预期的劳动力市场使得我们必须采取更严格的货币政策。- t% o& z7 m7 V
+ p9 H( k3 e# J市场预计缩表结束时间过于乐观
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关于货币紧缩政策，Logan也分享了联准会缩表计划的观点。首先，她认为市场预计的缩表结束时间过于乐观，比她预计的时间还要早。并且，即使在通胀指标降低后，联准会依旧有可能继续抛售所持债券：这将是维持货币政策相对于经济表现立场的举措，而不是为了降低通胀率的刺激性政策。6 a* b2 Q2 B& g. r! k3 ^1 b
0 f$ {) o) f+ C& P9 c同时，Logan也表示联准会资产负债表的相关因素目前没有影响到对利率的决策，并且由于逆回购措施，财政部的帐户也不太可能影响到银行准备金。, I% r/ ]* J/ z7 M/ z
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美国就业数据超预期" [- {* q2 l; } n
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另一方面，美国昨(6)晚公布的6月份ADP新增就业人数增加49.7万人，比市场预期的22.8万人多了近一倍，创下自去年2月以来的最高水平，表示着就业市场依然强劲。: a6 Z3 I8 j9 g; S
s: V' _1 f0 V% {* c受消息影响资产市场各类指数急跌，比特币也从今日高点31,500美元急挫，并跌破30,000美元。
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$ Z; f0 j6 `9 }3 q2 E比特币再跌破三万美元& K3 w6 J# Y* {
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Fed官员鹰派的立场、加上强劲的经济数据，加强了进一步升息的可能性，也让美股和加密货币市场进一步下跌。# E/ t( _! {4 i: x$ V. g6 B0 N
- ~- G% C, [, M1 v2 I& [' K比特币在昨(7)日来到31,500美元，创下今年最高价位之后随即快速下滑，今晨八点左右最低更一度来到29,701美元，再度失守3万美元大关，近24小时下挫1.79%。
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9 d) ^3 R1 J& G& M" S! @: f( }1 B. v5 y市场认为7月会议将升息1码为92.4%
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' m6 _+ T/ m% t3 v2 s" M7 a另一方面，据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据显示，截稿前市场认为7月会议将再升息1码的概率已升至92.4%，而保持不变的概率仅7.6%。) Y+ u. H" Y* L
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目前，7月利率决策公布的具体时间为本月27日的凌晨2:00(北京时间)。4 [, x c+ c/ Z1 ]8 e1 \9 `
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