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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
* D( x# W" K+ c断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。
& u9 ~5 W9 Z- c0 r但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
* G6 U: N, D; ~" F9 e8 m Z" K30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
+ e. W* S7 b K& R+ Z波动率历史低点，爆发到来？0 @% N" u7 P, B+ g" y
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄# H) n e& T5 P" _
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
$ p& j' @, ^$ Z/ A9 E! H* i从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的. [( |* C3 p1 t
低点。6 m6 q) w( N, F& Q4 ^* {6 G; e
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声6 B7 p* W2 d; _3 X6 J
另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突3 Z! Z- \) Q$ v8 I U
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
+ {( \3 K; _. }目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
; S) B. D* {( x- j* I* ~9 Q' b率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。8 c, b8 Y, N1 }9 l$ V C8 a
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael# |) m! u& @0 v
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。 V) @$ k" T. y( J. z9 E' k7 @
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种& h2 f" ?' ]5 Q. b9 H1 ]' E. K
情况不会在短时间内结束。”! o) {: F+ g0 | @/ M* y' P* i
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下2 l X- ]1 N0 H; `( T) a
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。' U+ a8 Y( |9 H+ o3 p) u3 [
比特币ETF即将通过？& G/ B7 W, X$ S0 r
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg' ^+ V" x! \7 k# [9 X
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
) e' M6 ~3 [- h! r+ h1 h: g7 j表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的4 w) W2 d: U" d" y$ n0 f& {
问题。0 z, d- h/ I( P' S5 L+ A+ h9 X/ \% H/ {
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
8 _) D* x5 V9 {4 w0 ^: t0 E
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