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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人/ p/ c5 @5 [1 X- O
1 ?& N, Y) Q( u; h( s认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，# g; n! B/ w8 T$ q* M
8 R; ]; r, e$ ~9 W$ M5 m/ H而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
8 k) r3 C2 U: C5 k$ s3 J% k/ u& h: S: {/ R, p( C
的千禧一代。2 J# r4 w6 }6 v8 P
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB" H: o9 w# y; f5 Z
$ u: Z7 D& t* [) l* e
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“8 P* A6 A- z/ D
5 g; ~: t; F2 K% J7 m8 N 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加& }4 ~, m8 L- E* x$ |
; Q! C' n) l- D3 l# X
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
9 L/ j/ T9 `0 X0 y8 F. t: e5 T, p$ q: w( k7 ?2 Z' p
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成! O5 n" ? e7 h& n. c) u
: \' r# q6 L+ Y$ l' s' Y的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
( e( r) d/ L" `' I" ~9 e' Q& X
3 @+ M( O5 o1 D: X6 I+ U# h6 [报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；& D; k" X5 M8 i8 T: s* E6 _: d
% s8 S( k8 g; u; }
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
W6 N& e. M8 b/ O0 \7 f& @8 Z+ W) V9 i% l
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。5 ~9 p' \) R- f, \ I r) G
6 y$ |( T8 L4 t) g0 O# e: }
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
/ \5 s0 ~ t, L& U }& Z- b) R/ |: m) G4 Z' K7 h
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。. s6 n3 I' _ d7 q' E3 G' E, ^
; [, W' [3 m b
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密- @8 M) D# B! ^* d* [
M$ ^7 J& j9 S+ S2 m
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富6 G1 i1 v; D# Y" |
' o5 I0 Z9 q& N: s$ a传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不; e' }7 t: k5 i5 Y/ ~8 j: \* b$ `- ~
+ `: F, F& Q' ^& n! P6 w+ Q
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一, t; [+ E0 D# ~9 w9 \5 c
, F) A$ y- o. ^" c0 o5 M" q代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
8 _# O+ w- `- Z( O) t; W9 C9 L7 L, u$ X' r4 Z L1 B
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体; U4 x0 D3 i& Y7 q
8 G6 H+ |; e( J7 Y
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货; h' C2 G' l+ _
. Z: [& g2 {3 c
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致3 `' W6 Q Z" M1 b5 x1 a- i3 m
4 b% Q- J6 X F Y7 }/ g未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
* \* i2 |% ^" H9 w
. G2 f9 s# @$ P; R! B& G8 z/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。" o9 z Y; |. R- z
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