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当前离线
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总在线: 12048 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的% q( V2 I* _9 B5 N8 I( |/ r5 X# n
' u) ~3 m* k. ?. k- J$ N) F- j) {
总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,
6 C' K4 o! L0 ~& G; l/ l$ k; ^* u+ z! M( z
方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。2 V9 m, m4 i: d
6 A4 S4 M9 K+ l* w& B1 n; [/ z0 j7 e% { Y/ |' n+ @0 g! R
0 X, U$ V& g$ l) ] 牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚, Y$ A5 E) o5 m7 G& I6 b
. y! M2 @. K5 ?) EFidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
) ^3 D5 e% e; K/ F5 w6 @% s7 ~3 F0 V5 B" z/ ]
内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF. p! ?; F* a; C% k
& Y% P5 _5 f: O' c) W宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿# {- y k, o1 l% n: @5 g/ g
7 A: x: d% r7 l' ?枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
/ H5 G+ t3 I1 h' N. S3 f! K9 q
5 c8 |1 B: E5 d* x& S& J, C$ x4 Z& hk线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成
- ^6 {% Q% R; l6 j3 w( T% @% I1 l; P5 S+ { f, Q+ ^) t b
震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死
( X4 `% \- ? ?+ U+ _) y
% q3 f- R/ q" k叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了/ _% w9 }' Y& D G
' [& B. ^$ T- T0 y) s避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确! s. a3 a; e N' }
2 C c3 ]% G1 z2 \/ g i定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时
9 x4 A+ r% O; M
. z7 j* L& ]8 u7 p E1 Z间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
6 A9 h" c% g5 }6 c5 O' C
) @4 \4 a7 G/ E3 `从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
1 L! E4 g/ {, q# s
% j6 \/ z$ U3 E7 U0 Y/ t,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑
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" \* i) `$ v z) z位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,
4 E3 d9 Z5 O8 L
! S+ X" n* @9 c+ O; vEMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。8 h! _" [& ?; E, q2 f" u1 m
* |+ Q A/ T$ n% v$ h
考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
0 ~: X8 \1 c3 R1 ^; K# l# ]' t C9 T. L8 S7 J3 n
认为比特币至少会去次6万。" u1 p S$ s' W a: q0 X7 R/ W7 {* ]" f
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/ w8 q; W5 a$ h1 [0 C# l) ^
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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当前离线
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