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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。: w- X4 Q. K6 d$ B
% S+ X- \. _2 P. A许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
- X0 ~/ P/ c4 O" y% `( T) M1 v( G- ]; d6 j1 }
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速. }2 J2 @" {% `; Q* ]2 B5 y. P& R) C
9 R* v9 s. n& P猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?% u0 X* m% s) b; S+ N
- {' l8 N- ^/ e8 H# u6 N
对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
( v9 G/ `; o3 q* f. W
: ]$ b, [& _/ v' J- f9 w- P. p. @这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
/ p4 [! z1 Z6 S# s6 U- M: h# a! s! |# |4 K) }' o1 |
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
! r) Z3 [- a4 c9 f; z" J5 o- Q1 ~6 a% D1 \2 U$ \0 S$ U* l
狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加) a; r) Y6 J8 C: R# ^8 [; H+ H
: R, |* ]5 J$ n2 U了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
& q- z6 O: ?( |& B/ Q. n* P: f1 [, h
m! k( W' w, \/ N: h2 ~! g黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
+ n6 m, g1 p" A) k( E
4 T* K9 \1 c& K y9 p* q当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
0 N% S/ S$ d0 h2 ^1 r0 l6 F, ^" A3 h# O4 |" z) m5 g+ B
升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超( i% @9 F: x" I ^! p0 l
7 E/ V/ K2 z+ ]& x8 O+ F% ~高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
6 p$ x3 c4 R/ G5 Y( q2 ]" f# {7 n, q
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置4 x6 o8 _% k3 [( d# M
6 W0 m% C; u) g0 ~" x& f K于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资2 L9 w- a: m. f* r( ?
: q4 X/ a! z, W$ _6 x1 N产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
6 v5 X2 d8 e3 b8 Y% L) O% _+ J+ E8 e0 G! ], x" D( K. m+ ~
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。: L) k8 `5 a$ _( p+ C& l t
; j$ \7 v5 v+ p3 A# c/ ~
之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
# W; W7 i2 W) Y( W+ F2 M( L7 J6 \% ]2 }5 X' D4 H! z( m/ f! f5 L
于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
2 g( m# V4 k2 D! v$ l% L
7 a- R/ e6 q7 d' T0 M; B而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加- _+ V, z: {, X# u3 j
- `: `' ^% a1 x- I# p& a# }速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。( w- p4 S, O& N- q
. f+ g9 O. }1 H3 t Z7 Q
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
. k: v2 o0 g$ b% S5 b' V; y& [( Y. A8 i
全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
! ?& z) n3 L& I. f& }" Z% V0 C
) x- x ~3 W' C' i# r9 N& A* @要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。4 {% q o7 C$ `* D
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