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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊价格仍处于历史上最悲观的一个季度，下一步该做什么？（转）
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2024 年迄今，以太坊的价格表现未达到市场预期。它并没有像预期的那样与比特币一起上涨至历史新高，而是停滞不前，即使在涨势最猛的时候也未能达到 4,000 美元。现在，随着第三季度的全面到来，以太坊的价格可能仍远未创下历史新高，因为从历史上看，这是按市值计算的第二大加密货币表现最糟糕的一个季度。4 u& E* f+ P' [2 t
第三季度（包括 7 月、8 月和 9 月）对以太坊的价格来说一直相当悲观。我们从Coinglass 网站上提供的数据中可以看到这一点，该网站追踪了自 2016 年推出以来该山寨币的月度回报率。 虽然其他月份的平均回报率大多偏高，但这三个月的回报率却是历年来最低的，第三季度的红色月份多于绿色月份。  从这个角度来看，在 9 年的时间里，7 月份只有 3 次以盈利结束，6 个月为负。8 月份也遵循了同样的趋势，6 个月为负，3 个月为盈利。到目前为止，8 年的时间里，9 月份有 5 次出现亏损，而只有 3 次为盈利。因此，这 8 个月的平均月回报率分别为 +5.51%、+6.98% 和 -7.67%。然后，中位数回报率全盘为负。 这些表现表明，一年中第三季度一直是最悲观的。相比之下，以太坊在第一季度的收益最好，紧随其后的是第二季度。因此，随着一年的结束，以太坊的价格变得越来越悲观。 根据历史数据，假设以太坊价格保持这种趋势，那么从现在到年底，山寨币可能不会出现任何显著的复苏。数据显示，9月份的情况可能会更糟，损失会更多。 然而，进入今年最后一个季度可能会给投资者带来一些安慰，因为价格可能会再次回升。但要真正实现收益，可能还需要几个月的时间，直到 2025 年第一季度，届时以太坊的价格将达到最佳回报。 此外，如果这种模式成立，那么以太坊的价格可能会在 2025 年第二季度创下历史新高。这将使其价格超过 5,000 美元，预示着从现在开始上涨 2 倍。 : l4 {/ t3 Y) B
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