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28日，Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC分析师Ben Carlson撰写了一篇题为《Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin？》的文章，认为很多人现在开始跃跃欲试比特币投资，往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨，受FOMO情绪所左右，形成了盲目追涨的心理。 [% O( ^8 p( k; c2 X
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他建议，投资者在考虑加密货币时，应该问自己为什么现在要进入市场，保持冷静，理性判断，不要仅仅因为价格已经上涨而盲目跟风。* X9 x8 |4 @! l3 F- u" S
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“我可以计算天体的运动，但无法计算人类的疯狂”
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近日比特币暴涨，投资者受FOMO情绪驱动，开始怀疑自己是否错过了这一波上涨行情。
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对此，Carlson表示，盲目跟风带来的投资决策可能会带来巨大的风险，正如历史上许多著名投资者的遭遇所警示的那样——即使是像艾萨克·牛顿这样的一代科学巨匠，也未能逃脱投资中的情绪陷阱。
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1712年，英国南海公司的股票在短时间内暴涨。数学家、物理学家和天文学家牛顿在第一次投资南海公司股票时小赚了一笔，尝到了甜头后，他再次投入了更多的资金，直到泡沫破裂。, Q+ H! c' G4 E! f1 B
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最终，他在南海泡沫中损失了10000至20000英镑，约合今天的2000万英镑。牛顿当时深感悔恨，并曾言：
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> “我可以计算天体的运动，但无法计算人类的疯狂。”
! `& A1 t1 H n3 ?3 ^5 o' p8 X9 U- g2 U/ B( k# g+ S7 L9 c8 G7 m
牛顿的南海公司投资不仅仅是一个金融泡沫的故事，也反映了人类在面对市场情绪时的脆弱性。在牛顿之后的几个世纪里，类似的情形屡见不鲜，尤其是在股市、房地产和其他高风险投资领域。每一次的市场暴涨，背后往往都隐藏着不理性的泡沫。' x- w9 b I' C& z' `0 H
# l& j" i9 \" N3 }. t6 x- A保持冷静、理性判断，避免FOMO心理主导决策) L `: \) h4 ^ j0 h6 Y
; X. b& @! l8 e7 @, r* ICarlson指出，比特币的价格上涨已经吸引了大量投资者的关注，但投资者需要理性思考，审视自己进入市场的动机。很多人现在才对比特币产生兴趣，往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨，形成了盲目追涨的心理。! l% m- O7 V; x t- V# Y
7 R. Z6 D+ |4 q5 N这种行为，往往会让投资者陷入“追涨杀跌”的恶性循环。比特币的价格可能继续上涨，但也可能因为市场调整而暴跌。
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- N3 d8 j. Q0 U! N! L; q( n他认为，投资比特币这样的高风险资产，虽然可能带来丰厚的回报，但同样也充满了不确定性。与其依赖FOMO驱动的冲动决策，不如采取理性、稳健的策略，不被市场的短期波动所左右。毕竟，历史上，许多伟大的投资者正是因为过度依赖情绪和市场的短期走势，才导致了无法承受的损失。# S' R- \& I' C( c
6 f1 Q% }$ \& z, ~7 @9 K对于现在考虑投资比特币的投资者，Carlson提出警告：如果你现在才决定进入市场，可能只是因为价格的暴涨和FOMO心理所致。这种情绪驱动的投资，往往难以持续。9 ]% V0 \) ~6 Q% G+ G# [, H% ^
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