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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。' q' ]! J A' A: P0 y; v
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？7 |8 j! ~8 r/ l+ t. A" S1 Z
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市 g1 k+ f4 ?# J* U
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。& m; g% m3 N, e' ?
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来源：Alphractal* L: Z! o& F. c2 b* R% |
/ C' \! S% E7 |5 d( d# Y* u15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。6 Q+ ]1 g3 X0 g: _' R9 W
5 p. J6 ^3 @$ \: J8 l. {+ Z/ b尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。, V" \7 s- A8 T. C! }
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事情变得有趣了, _ c# }. O4 ]8 F7 u
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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* B* m1 G; X' {* G9 e5 o% t6 o; }来源：X
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5 v" z! j/ N$ j- w# U$ f0 i. o i根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。* S( B* v1 a% W ^% d E
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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) f- [+ [2 o8 w, V$ y4 D空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
0 @% t* Y0 b# P' k7 q k0 j; g经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView( n% |& H; E8 @
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。: Q2 `2 Q+ M) d2 a! y
[9 T$ S; l7 m1 H* O+ z突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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