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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。* K! M9 F5 v5 b; x I- b
- p) X3 [% N6 M' o9 ?! L但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。& A4 D; S( y* ~+ z4 g6 x0 l
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？: g; ]& o% R* q, ^9 M' D
, c: v# R8 ]( T( U t开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
- I7 n* D% X" |2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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/ j! A5 q& |' A% f来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
+ L$ f' C1 d7 K6 F/ C+ G k. M4 GBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。/ X& S6 R, Y( [) E/ O5 T. R! g7 a+ \7 ]
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来源：X/ t9 f3 i8 x& J" w7 p' Z& R: T
( t/ A1 A2 t/ y" ]5 I根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。; ?/ ^8 w' D& {! ?) w2 u% k4 B
4 n1 x2 ]% Q1 l1 g; ^/ `BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。' m: y* `. R$ P7 J/ w8 J# i, O- |
- S0 {+ S' S1 N0 d& ]正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。. ~( H, u3 A2 R" I3 j& D% |
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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7 h( e( [1 V& Y: t7 F! Q空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力' ?% P9 y0 q# I( g
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView7 |9 m5 b w/ |# G* h3 @ `+ j
3 i+ h5 t% Y, h( W+ S$ O日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。( s' k7 s. q5 h- i& Q
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。* D" _8 ^/ \/ s1 j# }3 p2 n8 `8 ~# B
( C/ J+ Y1 T9 s6 v3 e5 J1 h( W8 d突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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